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The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis

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  • Arif Dar
  • Amaresh Samantaraya
  • Firdous Shah

Abstract

This paper examines whether the spread between long- and short-terminterest rates contains information about future economic activity in India. Using the yields on securities with maturities ranging from three months to ten years, we construct five different yield spreads at shorter end, longer end, and policy relevant area of the yield curve. We study the predictive power of each of these spreads for output growth within aggregate and time scale framework using wavelet methodology. We find that predictive power holds only at lower frequencies for the spreads which are constructed at shorter end and policy relevant areas of yield curve. However, spreads which are constructed at the longer end of the yield curve do not seem to have predictive information for output growth. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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  • Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:46:y:2014:i:3:p:887-901
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-013-0705-6
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    2. Hudgins, David & Crowley, Patrick M., 2017. "Modelling a small open economy using a wavelet-based control model," Research Discussion Papers 32/2017, Bank of Finland.
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    5. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2022. "Monetary policy objectives and economic outcomes: What can we learn from a wavelet‐based optimal control approach?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 144-170, March.
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    8. Firdous Ahmad Shah & Lokenath Debnath, 2017. "Wavelet Neural Network Model for Yield Spread Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield spread; Wavelets; Multiresolution analysis ; DWT; MODWT; C49; E43; E44; E47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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