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What is the right balance between US monetary and fiscal policy? Explorations using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control

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  • Patrick M. Crowley

    (Texas A & M University – Corpus Christi)

  • David Hudgins

    (Texas A & M University – Corpus Christi)

Abstract

This paper uses wavelet-based optimal control to simulate fiscal and monetary strategies under different levels of policy restrictions. The model applies the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform to US quarterly GDP data and then uses the decomposed variables to build a large 80-dimensional state-space linear-quadratic tracking model. Using a political targeting design for the frequency range weights, we simulate jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy where: (1) both fiscal and monetary policy are dually emphasized, (2) fiscal policy is unrestricted while monetary policy is restricted to achieving a steady increase in the market interest rate, (3) only monetary policy is relatively active, while fiscal spending is restricted to achieving a target growth rate, and (4) monetary policy emphasizes short-run stabilization, while fiscal policy utilizes political cycle targeting. The results show that fiscal policy must be more aggressive when the monetary authorities are not accommodating the fiscal expansion and that the dual-emphasis policy leads to a series of interest rate increases that are balanced between a steadily increasing target and a low, fixed rate. This research is the first to construct integrated fiscal and monetary policies in an applied wavelet-based optimal control setting using US data.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2018. "What is the right balance between US monetary and fiscal policy? Explorations using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1537-1568, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:55:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1326-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1326-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James Bernard Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2011. "The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(4), pages 489-508, August.
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    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2015_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    6. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    7. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    8. Kendrick David A. & Amman Hans M., 2014. "Quarterly Fiscal Policy," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-6, November.
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    10. David Kendrick & George Shoukry, 2014. "Quarterly Fiscal Policy Experiments with a Multiplier-Accelerator Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(3), pages 269-293, October.
    11. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Faridul Islam, 2015. "Time–frequency relationship between share prices and exchange rates in India: Evidence from continuous wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 699-714, March.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508131350 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2017. "Wavelet-based monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 206-231.
    14. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Fiscal policy tracking design in the time–frequency domain using wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 502-514.
    15. Patrick M. Crowley & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2014. "The Great Moderation Under the Microscope: Decomposition of Macroeconomic Cycles in US and UK Aggregate Demand," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Marco Gallegati & Willi Semmler (ed.), Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance, edition 127, pages 47-71, Springer.
    16. Wen-Yi Chen, 2016. "Health progress and economic growth in the USA: the continuous wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 831-855, May.
    17. Marco Gallegati & Willi Semmler (ed.), 2014. "Wavelet Applications in Economics and Finance," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-07061-2, July-Dece.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hudgins, David & Crowley, Patrick M., 2017. "Modelling a small open economy using a wavelet-based control model," Research Discussion Papers 32/2017, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2019. "U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation in an Open Economy Context using Wavelet Decomposed Optimal Control Methods," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2019, Bank of Finland.
    4. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2019. "U.S. Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation in an Open Economy Context using Wavelet Decomposed Optimal Control Methods," Research Discussion Papers 11/2019, Bank of Finland.
    6. João Martins, 2022. "Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 189-214, July.
    7. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2020. "How effective is the Taylor rule? Some insights from the time-frequency domain," BoF Economics Review 1/2020, Bank of Finland.
    8. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2022. "Monetary policy objectives and economic outcomes: What can we learn from a wavelet‐based optimal control approach?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(2), pages 144-170, March.
    9. Patrick M. Crowley & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2021. "The Evolution of US and UK Real GDP Components in the Time-Frequency Domain: A Continuous Wavelet Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 233-261, December.
    10. David Hudgins & Patrick M. Crowley, 2019. "Stress-Testing U.S. Macroeconomic Policy: A Computational Approach Using Stochastic and Robust Designs in a Wavelet-Based Optimal Control Framework," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1509-1546, April.
    11. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2021. "The time-frequency analysis of conventional and unconventional monetary policy: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    12. David Hudgins & Patrick M. Crowley, 2023. "Resilient Control for Macroeconomic Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(4), pages 1403-1431, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discrete wavelet analysis; Fiscal policy; Linear-quadratic; Monetary policy; Optimal control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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