IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bofecr/12020.html

How effective is the Taylor rule? Some insights from the time-frequency domain

Author

Listed:
  • Crowley, Patrick M.
  • Hudgins, David

Abstract

When the central bank sets monetary policy according to a conventional or modified Taylor rule (which is known as the Taylor Principle), does this deliver the best outcome for the mac-roeconomy as a whole? This question is addressed by extending the wavelet-based control (WBC) model of Crowley and Hudgins (2015) to evaluate macroeconomic performance when the central bank sets interest rates based on a conventional or modified Taylor rule (TR). We compare the simulated performance of jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy under an unrestricted baseline model with performance under the TR. We simulate the model un-der relatively small and large weighting of the output gap in the TR specification, and for both low and high inflation environments. The results show that the macroeconomic outcome de-pends on whether the conventional or modified Taylor rule is used, and whether the central bank is operating in a low or high inflation environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2020. "How effective is the Taylor rule? Some insights from the time-frequency domain," BoF Economics Review 1/2020, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:12020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/214875/1/1691728837.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2018. "Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-137.
    2. George A. Kahn, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and the Practice of Central Banking," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 3, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    3. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Adriana Fernandez & Evan F. Koenig & Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, 2008. "The relative performance of alternative Taylor rule specifications," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Jun.
    5. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2018. "What is the right balance between US monetary and fiscal policy? Explorations using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1537-1568, December.
    7. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2017. "Wavelet-based monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 206-231.
    8. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Fiscal policy tracking design in the time–frequency domain using wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 502-514.
    9. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, January-J.
    10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    3. Brancaccio, Emiliano & Califano, Andrea & Lopreite, Milena & Moneta, Alessio, 2020. "Nonperforming loans and competing rules of monetary policy: A statistical identification approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 127-136.
    4. George A. Kahn, 2010. "Taylor rule deviations and financial imbalances," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 95(Q II), pages 63-99.
    5. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Youngcheol Shin, 2011. "Shifting Preferences at the Fed: Evidence from Rolling Dynamic Multipliers and Impulse Response Analysis," Working Papers 2011-057, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    6. Hudgins, David & Crowley, Patrick M., 2017. "Modelling a small open economy using a wavelet-based control model," Research Discussion Papers 32/2017, Bank of Finland.
    7. Ireland, Peter N., 2003. "Endogenous money or sticky prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1623-1648, November.
    8. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "The zero-interest-rate bound and the role of the exchange rate for monetary policy in Japan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1071-1101, July.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-136, December.
    10. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Who believes in the Taylor principle? Evidence from the Livingston survey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 96-98.
    11. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    12. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    13. Ayşegül Ladin SÜMER, 2020. "Optimal Taylor rule in the new era central banking perspective," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 159-170, Spring.
    14. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    15. Yu Hsing, 2020. "Impacts of Real Depreciation and Appreciation on Aggregate Output in Taiwan," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 123-130, March.
    16. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:125-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Tachibana, Minoru, 2008. "Inflation zone targeting and the Federal Reserve," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 68-84, March.
    18. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    19. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    20. Christopher Gust & Benjamin K. Johannsen & J. David López-Salido, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Incomplete Information, and the Zero Lower Bound," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 37-70, April.
    21. Stéphane Albert & Hervé Alexandre, 2018. "Banks’ earnings: Empirical evidence of the influence of economic and financial market factors," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 97-116, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofecr:12020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.