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Quarterly Fiscal Policy Experiments with a Multiplier-Accelerator Model

Author

Listed:
  • David Kendrick

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Texas at Austin)

  • George Shoukry

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Texas at Austin)

Abstract

In an earlier paper, i.e. Kendrick and Amman (2010) we raised the question of whether adjusting fiscal policy more frequently than its current pace of once a year could be used to improve stabilization. Also, we proposed a method for shedding light on that question by using a small macroeconometric model in a quadratic linear tracking stochastic control framework with an implicit feedback rule to compare a scenario in which fiscal policy was changed quarterly to a scenario in which it was only changed once a year. In this paper we first report on the use of counterfactual experiments in the 2007 thru 2010 period of a major downturn in the economy. We find in one experiment that quarterly changes in policy stabilize output levels in the economy better than annual changes with a slightly larger increase in debt over the counterfactual period. In a second experiment we find that when weight changes are used to get roughly equal stabilization results, the increase in the debt level is substantially less with quarterly than with annual policy changes. In the second part of the paper we repeat the two experiments but do so in a Monte Carlo framework. The results in this more general framework also point the way to a finding that a relatively simple shift from annual to quarterly fiscal policy could provide either better stabilization results with a slightly larger increase in the debt level or similar stabilization results but with a smaller increase in the debt level.

Suggested Citation

  • David Kendrick & George Shoukry, 2013. "Quarterly Fiscal Policy Experiments with a Multiplier-Accelerator Model," Department of Economics Working Papers 130208, The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tex:wpaper:130208
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Deissenberg, Christophe, 1980. "Optimal Control of Linear Econometric Models with Intermittent Controls," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 49-56.
    3. Kenneth Garbade, 1975. "Macroeconomics: Discretion in the Choice of Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 4, number 2, pages 215-238 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A., 2003. "Mitigation of the Lucas critique with stochastic control methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2035-2057.
    6. Amman, Hans & Kendrick, David, 1999. "Linear-Quadratic Optimization For Models With Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(04), pages 534-543, December.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hudgins, David & Crowley, Patrick M., 2017. "Modelling a small open economy using a wavelet-based control model," Research Discussion Papers 32/2017, Bank of Finland.
    2. David Hudgins & Joon Na, 2016. "Entering H $$^{\infty }$$ ∞ -Optimal Control Robustness into a Macroeconomic LQ-Tracking Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 121-155, February.
    3. repec:kap:compec:v:51:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10614-017-9650-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:2:p:206-231 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Fiscal policy tracking design in the time–frequency domain using wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 502-514.
    6. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2015. "Euro area monetary and fiscal policy tracking design in the time-frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 12/2015, Bank of Finland.
    7. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201508131350 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Crowley, Patrick M. & Hudgins, David, 2016. "Analysis of the balance between U.S. monetary and fiscal policy using simulated wavelet-based optimal tracking control," Research Discussion Papers 21/2016, Bank of Finland.
    9. repec:spr:jecstr:v:6:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-017-0065-z is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; stochastic control; economic stochastic control models; feedback rules; macroeconomics; stabilization policy.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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