Mitigation Of The Lucas Critique With Stochastic Control Methods
Lucas (1976) pointed out, that when optimization is performed on a deterministic macro model, the resulting policy may not reflect the true optimal solution. Private agents may react to announced policies and consequently model parameters will start to drift. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for deriving an optimal policy in the presence of rational expectations and parameter drift. This drift is captured by a stochastic optimization framework with time varying parameters. The resulting optimal policy is capable of tracking changes in the parameters due to policy changes. A numerical example illustrates how the methodology provides a way to mitigate the effects of the Lucas critique.
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||05 Jul 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +34 93 542 17 46
Web page: http://enginy.upf.es/SCE/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997.
"Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs,"
97002, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Jan 1997.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 118, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2001. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Working Paper 9905, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 48, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Apr 2001.
- Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
- Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1997.
"Linear Quadratic Optimization for Models with Rational Expectations,"
CARE Working Papers
9708, The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics.
- Amman, Hans & Kendrick, David, 1999. "Linear-Quadratic Optimization For Models With Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(04), pages 534-543, December.
- Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980.
"Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February.
- P.A.V.B. Swamy & P.A. Tinsley, 1976. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Special Studies Papers 78, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A., 1998.
"Computing the steady state of linear quadratic optimization models with rational expectations,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 185-191, February.
- Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1997. "Computing the Steady State of Linear Quadratic Optimization Models with Rational Expectations," CARE Working Papers 9707, The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1993.
"The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP,"
NBER Working Papers
4304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1994. "The Use of a Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 7-69 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
- Amman, Hans M. & Neudecker, Heinz, 1997. "Numerical solutions of the algebraic matrix Riccati equation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 363-369.
- Tucci, Marco P., 1997. "Adaptive control in the presence of time-varying parameters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-47, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf0:182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.