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Mitigation of the Lucas critique with stochastic control methods

  • Amman, Hans M.
  • Kendrick, David A.

Lucas (1976) pointed out, that when optimization is performed on a deterministic macro model, the resulting policy may not reflect the true optimal solution. Private agents may react to announced policies and consequently model parameters will start to drift. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for deriving an optimal policy in the presence of rational expectations and parameter drift. This drift is captured by a stochastic optimization framework with time varying parameters. The resulting optimal policy is capable of tracking changes in the parameters due to policy changes. A numerical example illustrates how the methodology provides a way to mitigate the effects of the Lucas critique.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 27 (2003)
Issue (Month): 11-12 (September)
Pages: 2035-2057

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:27:y:2003:i:11-12:p:2035-2057
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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  1. Amman, Hans & Kendrick, David, 1999. "Linear-Quadratic Optimization For Models With Rational Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(04), pages 534-543, December.
  2. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  3. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, 1997. "Computing the Steady State of Linear Quadratic Optimization Models with Rational Expectations," CARE Working Papers 9707, The University of Texas at Austin, Center for Applied Research in Economics.
  4. Martin Feldstein & James H. Stock, 1993. "The Use of Monetary Aggregate to Target Nominal GDP," NBER Working Papers 4304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Wickens, Michael R, 1982. "The Efficient Estimation of Econometric Models with Rational Expectations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 55-67, January.
  6. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February.
  7. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 1997. "Monetary policy regimes and beliefs," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 118, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  9. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  10. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  11. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  12. Tucci, Marco P., 1997. "Adaptive control in the presence of time-varying parameters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-47, November.
  13. Amman, Hans M. & Neudecker, Heinz, 1997. "Numerical solutions of the algebraic matrix Riccati equation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 363-369.
  14. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1980. "Econometric Implications of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 49-73, January.
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