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Mitigation of the Lucas critique with stochastic control methods

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  • Amman, Hans M.
  • Kendrick, David A.

Abstract

Lucas (In: Brunner, K., Meltzer, A.H. (Eds.), The Phillips Curve and the Labor Markets, Supplementary Series to the Journal of Monetary Economics, 1976, pp. 19–46) pointed out, that when optimization is performed on a deterministic macro model, the resulting policy may not reflect the true optimal solution. Private agents may react to announced policies and consequently model parameters will start to drift. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for deriving an optimal policy in the presence of rational expectations and parameter drift. This drift is captured by a stochastic optimization framework with time-varying parameters. The resulting optimal policy is capable of tracking changes in the parameters due to policy changes. A numerical example illustrates how the methodology provides a way to mitigate the effects of the Lucas critique.

Suggested Citation

  • Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A., 2003. "Mitigation of the Lucas critique with stochastic control methods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2035-2057.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:27:y:2003:i:11:p:2035-2057
    DOI: 10.1016/S0165-1889(02)00115-X
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    Cited by:

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    3. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2011. "Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 67-88, January.
    4. D.A. Kendrick & H.M. Amman & M.P. Tucci, 2008. "Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models," Working Papers 08-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
    5. Amman, Hans M. & Kendrick, David A. & Tucci, Marco P., 2020. "Approximating The Value Function For Optimal Experimentation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1073-1086, July.
    6. Guhl, Daniel & Baumgartner, Bernhard & Kneib, Thomas & Steiner, Winfried J., 2018. "Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 394-414.
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    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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