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Monetary Policy Shifts, Indeterminacy and Inflation Dynamics

  • Paolo Surico

    ()

    (Monetary Assessment & Strategy Division Bank of England)

The New-Keynesian Phillips curve plays a central role in modern macroeconomic theory. A vast empirical literature has estimated this structural relationship over various postwar full-samples. While it is well know that in a New-Keynesian model a `weak' central bank response to inflation generates sunspot fluctuations, the consequences of pooling observations from different monetary policy regimes for the estimates of the structural Phillips curve had not been investigated. Using Montecarlo simulations from a purely forward-looking model, this paper shows that indeterminacy can introduce a sizable persistence in the estimated process of inflation. This persistence however is not an intrinsic feature of the economy; rather it is endogenous to the policy regime and results from the self full-filling nature of inflation expectations. By neglecting indeterminacy the estimates of the forward-looking term of the structural Phillips curve are shown to be biased downward. The implications are in line with the empirical evidence for the U.K and U.S

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 313.

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Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:313
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