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Monetary policy shifts and inflation dynamics

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  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve plays a central role in modern macroeconomic theory. A vast empirical literature has estimated this structural relationship over various post-war full samples. While it is well known that in a standard sticky price model a 'weak' central bank response to inflation generates sunspot fluctuations, the consequences of pooling observations from different monetary policy regimes for (i) the estimates of the structural Phillips curve and (ii) the estimates of inflation persistence had not been investigated. Using Monte Carlo simulations from a purely forward-looking model, this paper shows that indeterminacy can introduce a sizable persistence in the process of inflation. On the reduced form, our results show that inflation persistence can be endogenous to the policy regime rather than intrinsic to the structure of the economy. On the structural form, we find that by neglecting equilibrium indeterminacy the estimates of the forward-looking term of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve are biased downward. The implications are in line with the empirical evidence for the United Kingdom and United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Surico, 2008. "Monetary policy shifts and inflation dynamics," Bank of England working papers 338, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:338
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2008/WP338.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2010. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic volatilities in the post-WWII U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, March.
    2. Riccardo DiCecio & Edward Nelson, 2010. "Euro Membership as a U.K. Monetary Policy Option: Results from a Structural Model," NBER Chapters,in: Europe and the Euro, pages 415-439 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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