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The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models

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  • Thomas A. Lubik
  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that movements in international relative prices (such as the real exchange rate) are large and persistent. Nontraded goods, both in the form of final consumption goods and as an input into the production of final tradable goods, are an important aspect behind international relative price movements. In this paper we show that nontraded goods have important implications for exchange rate behavior, even though fluctuations in the relative price of nontraded goods account for a relatively small fraction of real exchange rate movements. In our quantitative study nontraded goods magnify the volatility of exchange rates when compared to the model without nontraded goods. Cross-country correlations and the correlation of exchange rates with other macro variables are closer in line with the data. In addition, contrary to a large literature,standard alternative assumptions about the currency in which firms price their goods are virtually inconsequential for the properties of aggregate variables in our model, other than the terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Working Paper 06-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:06-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    2. Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    3. Jan Čapek, 2016. "Structural Changes in the Czech Economy: A DSGE Model Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 37-52.
    4. Da Silva, Sergio, 2009. "Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-11.
    5. Liu, Yuelin & Morley, James, 2014. "Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-68.
    6. Florin O. Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2013. "Asset Market Participation, Monetary Policy Rules, and the Great Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 377-392, May.
    7. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
    8. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    9. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2013. "Testing structural stability in macroeconometric models," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 9, pages 206-228 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015. "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers 402, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    11. Liu, Yuelin & Morley, James, 2014. "Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-68.
    12. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
    13. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    14. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions: Specification, Estimation, and an Application," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 4Q, pages 323-352.
    15. Milani, Fabio, 2014. "Learning and time-varying macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 94-114.
    16. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:484-505 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Yash P. Mehra & Devin Reilly, 2009. "Short-term headline-core inflation dynamics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 289-313.

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    Monetary policy ; Econometric models;

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