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Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation

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  • Lindé, Jesper

    () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

In this paper, I try to shed some new light on the "puzzle" why the Lucas critique, belived to be important by most economists, seems to have received very little empirical support. I use a real business cycle model to examine the properties of the super exogeneity test, which is used to detect the applicability of the Lucas critique in practice. The results suggest that the super exogeneity test is not capable of detecting the relevance of Lucas critique in practice in small samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindé, Jesper, 2000. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," Working Paper Series 113, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0113
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    1. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons, 1995. "The Lucas critique in practice: theory without measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesper Linde, 2002. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Backward-Looking Models," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 155-182.
    2. J. Subrick & Andrew Young, 2010. "Nobelity and novelty: Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott’s contributions viewed from Vienna," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 35-53, March.
    3. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    4. Charles Goodhart & Lavan Mahadeva & John Spicer, 2003. "Monetary policy's effects during the financial crises in Brazil and Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 55-79.
    5. Basdevant, Olivier, 2005. "Learning process and rational expectations: An analysis using a small macro-economic model for New Zealand," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1074-1089, December.
    6. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2008. "Regime shifts and the stability of backward-looking Phillips curves in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 40-53, February.
    7. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Faria, Joao Ricardo & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2005. "Real exchange rate and employment performance in an open economy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 67-80, March.
    9. SANTOS, Carlos & OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta, 2007. "Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    10. Smith, Ron, 2009. "EMU and the Lucas Critique," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 744-750, July.
    11. João Ricardo Faria & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2000. "The Intertemporal Substitution Model of Labor Supply in an Open Economy," Studies in Economics 0009, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    12. Marios Karabarbounis, 2012. "Heterogeneity in Labor Supply Elasticity and Optimal Taxation," 2012 Meeting Papers 655, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Steven M. Shugan, 2005. "Comments on Competitive Responsiveness," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(1), pages 3-7.
    14. Thomas A. Lubik & Paolo Surico, 2010. "The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 177-194.
    15. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September.
    16. Paolo Gelain, "undated". "The Optimal Monetary Policy Rule For the European Central Bank," EcoMod2007 23900028, EcoMod.
    17. van Heerde, H.J. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Putsis, W.P., 2004. "Marketing Models and the Lucas Critique," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-080-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    18. SOOREEA, Rajeev, 2007. "Are Taylor-Based Monetary Policy Rules Forward-Looking?. An Investigation Using Superexogeneity Tests," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 87-94.
    19. Liu, Yuelin & Morley, James, 2014. "Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-68.
    20. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "Macroeconomic Confusion," Discussion Papers in Economics 886, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    21. Liu, Yuelin & Morley, James, 2014. "Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-68.
    22. Lindé, Jesper, 2001. "The Empirical Relevance of Simple Forward- and Backward-looking Models: A View from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Paper Series 130, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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    Keywords

    Lucas critique; Real business cycle model; Super exogeneity test; Taylor rules; Money demand; Consumption function;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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