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Pruebas de la neutralidad monetaria a largo plazo. El caso de Nicaragua

  • Wallace, Frederick H.

    (Departamento de Ciencias Económico-Administrativas, Universidad de Quintana Roo, Chetumal)

  • Shelley, Gary L.

    (Department of Economics, Finance, and Urban Studies, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee)

  • Cabrera Castellanos, Luis Fernando

    (Departamento de Ciencias Económico-Administrativas, Universidad de Quintana Roo, Chetumal)

The Fisher-Seater (1993) methodology is applied to Nicaraguan data in order to test for long-run neutrality of money. Both the monetary base and M2a are found to be I(2) variables while real GDP is I(1). Given these orders of integration, the neutrality hypothesis cannot be rejected under their test. Furthermore, neither of the measures of money is supernatural but the evidence against the proposition is not strong. The results suggest that inflation imposed real costs on the economy.// En este artículo se realiza una aplicación de la metodología de Fisher y Seater (1933) con el fin de probar la existencia a largo plazo de neutralidad y superneutralidad de dinero en Nicaragua durante 1960-1999. Se encuentra que ambas medidas de dinero, la base monetaria y el M2a, son integradas en orden dos [I(2)] y el PIB es integrado en orden uno [I(1)]. Dados estos órdenes, no se puede rechazar la hipótesis de neutralidad a prueba. Lo que es más, ninguna de las medidas de dinero es superneutral, aunque la evidencia en contra no es sólida. Los resultados sugieren, asimismo, que la inflación impuso costos reales en la economía nicaragüense durante el periodo señalado.

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Article provided by Fondo de Cultura Económica in its journal El Trimestre Económico.

Volume (Year): LXXI (3) (2004)
Issue (Month): 283 (julio-septiembre)
Pages: 613-624

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Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:71:y:2004:i:283:p:613-624
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