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Règle de Taylor: estimation et interprétation pour la zone euro et pour le Luxembourg

  • Patrick Lünnemann

    ()

  • Abdelaziz Rouabah

    ()

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    Dans cette contribution, nous tentons de mener une analyse sur la compatibilité du comportement de l'Eurosystème en matière de conduite de la politique monétaire avec la règle dite de Taylor. Cette dernière a pour ambition d'établir une ligne de conduite qui s'impose aux autorités monétaires afin qu'elles puissent assurer une stabilité des agrégats macroéconomiques. Ainsi, la finalité de cette règle est la détermination d'un taux d'intérêt à court terme, supposé compatible avec les objectifs de la stabilité des prix et du maintien de l'output ?á son niveau potentiel. L'écart entre les taux calculés et les taux observés représente un indicateur de l'adéquation de la politique monétaire aux données économiques fondamentales. Au premier niveau, une attention particulière est accordée à la critique de la règle initiale de Taylor. Son application rétrospective sur des données relatives à l'Eurosystème se révèle peu concluante. Des ajustements des pondérations et/ou l'introduction de nouvelles variables sont nécessaires pour calquer sa trajectoire sur celle des taux observés. Au second niveau, l'usage de la règle de Taylor est étendue à l'évaluation des effets différenciés de la politique monétaire. Le calibrage de la règle selon les paramètres estimés pour la zone euro, sur de données observées au Luxembourg tend à confirmer cette hypothèse.

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    File URL: http://www.bcl.lu/fr/publications/cahiers_etudes/9/BCLWP009.pdf
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    Paper provided by Central Bank of Luxembourg in its series BCL working papers with number 9.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: Oct 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp009
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcl.lu/

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