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The natural real rate of interest in the euro area

Author

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  • Giammarioli, Nicola
  • Valla, Natacha

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking inot account the variations of the natural real interest rate (rt*) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of rt* that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and present the implied 'real rate rate gap' as a possible additional indicator to assess the stance of monetary policy. JEL Classification: E4, E5

Suggested Citation

  • Giammarioli, Nicola & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "The natural real rate of interest in the euro area," Working Paper Series 233, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003233
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp233.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andres, Javier & David Lopez-Salido, J. & Valles, Javier, 2002. "Intertemporal substitution and the liquidity effect in a sticky price model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1399-1421, September.
    2. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
    3. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    4. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 0171, European Central Bank.
    5. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2001. "The Taylor Rule and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 232-237, May.
    8. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; monetary policy; natural rate of interest;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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