IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_433_01.html

Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?

Author

Listed:
  • Peter van Els

    (De Nederlandsche Bank)

  • Alberto Locarno

    (Banca d�Italia, Economic Research Department)

  • Julian Morgan

    (European Central Bank)

  • Jean-Pierre Villetelle

    (Banque de France)

Abstract

This paper analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area through the use of large scale macroeconomic models at the disposal of the European Central Bank and the National Central Banks of the Eurosystem. The results reported are based on a carefully designed common simulation experiment involving a 100 basis point rise in the policy interest rate for two years accompanied by common assumptions regarding the path of longterm interest rates and the exchange rate. Aggregating the country level results, the fall in output is found to reach a maximum of 0.4 per cent after 2 years. The maximum aggregate fall in prices is also 0.4 per cent, but it occurs 2 years later. The dominant channel of transmission in the first two years is the exchange rate channel, but in terms of the impact on output, the user cost of capital channel becomes dominant from the third year of the simulation onwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 433, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_433_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2001/2001-0433/tema_433_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fromm, Gary & Klein, Lawrence R, 1973. "A Comparison of Eleven Econometric Models of the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 385-393, May.
    2. Charles R. Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 31-52, Fall.
    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-97.
    4. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2001. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 5, pages 170-207, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    6. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Smith, Peter N. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 1998. "Comparing global economic models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-48, January.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    8. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Eileen Mauskopf & Peter A. Tinsley, 1990. "The transmission channels of monetary policy: how have they changed?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 985-1008.
    9. McAdam, Peter & Morgan, Julian, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism at the euro-area level: issues and results using structural macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 93, European Central Bank.
    10. C Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0086, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. John B. Taylor, 1995. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 11-26, Fall.
    12. Gali, Jordi & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Valles, Javier, 2003. "Technology shocks and monetary policy: assessing the Fed's performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 723-743, May.
    13. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422, Elsevier.
    2. Lensink, Robert & Sterken, Elmer, 2002. "Monetary transmission and bank competition in the EMU," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(11), pages 2065-2075, November.
    3. Kashyap, Anil K. & Mojon, Benoît & Terlizzese, Daniele & Backé, Peter, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 114, European Central Bank.
    4. Jamshaid ur Rehman & Khalil Ahmad & Jawaria Arif, 2022. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in BRICS Countries: A Comparative Response with the USA," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 23-34, December.
    5. Dina Cakmur Yildirtan & Selin Sarili, 2017. "Panel Data Analysis of Monetary Transmission Mechanism for European Union Countries," Journal of Social Science Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 42-56, July.
    6. M. Ali Choudhary & Amjad Ali & Shah Hussain & Vasco J Gabriel, 2012. "Bank Lending and Monetary Shocks: Evidence from a Developing Economy," Working Papers id:4771, eSocialSciences.
    7. ALISTAIR DIEPPE & KEITH KÜSTER & PETER McADAM, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules for the Euro Area: An Analysis Using the Area Wide Model," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 507-537, September.
    8. Rashid, Abdul & Hassan, M. Kabir & Shah, Muhammad Abdul Rehman, 2020. "On the role of Islamic and conventional banks in the monetary policy transmission in Malaysia: Do size and liquidity matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Mr. Jorge Roldos, 2006. "Disintermediation and Monetary Transmission in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2006/084, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Elbourne, Adam & de Haan, Jakob, 2006. "Financial structure and monetary policy transmission in transition countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 1-23, March.
    11. J.M. Berk, 1998. "Monetary transmission: what do we know and how can we use it?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 51(205), pages 145-170.
    12. Ivo J.M. Arnold, 2013. "The industry effects of monetary policy and their welfare implications," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 53(214), pages 287-315.
    13. Žukauskas, Vytautas & Hülsmann, Jörg Guido, 2019. "Financial asset valuations: The total demand approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 123-131.
    14. Alam, Tasneem & Waheed, Muhammad, 2006. "The monetary transmission mechanism in Pakistan: a sectoral analysis," MPRA Paper 2719, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Apr 2007.
    15. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Giorgio Di Giorgio, 1999. "Monetary policy shocks and transmission in Italy: A VAR analysis," Economics Working Papers 446, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Ageliki Anagnostou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2012. "The effects of Monetary Policy shocks across the Greek Regions," ERSA conference papers ersa12p507, European Regional Science Association.
    17. Johann Scharler, 2007. "The Liquidity Effect in Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems," Economics working papers 2007-18, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    18. Eickmeier Sandra & Worms Andreas & Hofmann Boris, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    19. Leith, Campbell & Malley, Jim, 2005. "Estimated general equilibrium models for the evaluation of monetary policy in the US and Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 2137-2159, November.
    20. Ibrahim L. Awad, 2011. "The Impact of Recent Innovations in Monetary Policy on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 186-209.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_433_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.