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Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Eickmeier Sandra

    (Deutsche Bundesbank,Main, Germany)

  • Worms Andreas

    (Deutsche Bundesbank,Main, Germany)

  • Hofmann Boris

    (Deutsche Bundesbank,Main, Germany)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic response of loans to the private sector and of economic activity to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area based on a standard macroeconomic VAR using sign restrictions to identify the structural shocks. The main results of this analysis are that (i) with the exception of the response to the supply shock in Germany, the response of loans to the three macroeconomic shocks is rather weak and in most cases insignificant; (ii) the 2000-05 credit slowdown and weak economic performance in Germany were primarily driven by adverse supply shocks; and (iii) the marked slowdown in credit creation in Germany over this period actually represents a realignment of the outstanding stock of loans with its deterministic level. In order to assess the role of bank lending in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, we further perform counterfactual simulations and analyze the dynamic responses of German loan subaggregates in order to test the distributional implications of potential credit market frictions. These exercises do not indicate that credit market frictions play an amplifying role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Eickmeier Sandra & Worms Andreas & Hofmann Boris, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 193-223, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:germec:v:10:y:2009:i:2:p:193-223
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0475.2008.00455.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenti, A.Nicolás & Mora-Ruano, Rubén & Fernández Romero, Daniel & Angoitia Grijalba, Miguel, 2025. "Fiscal Forecast Errors in the Eurozone: The Influence of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs) and Monetary Policy," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 254(3), pages 119-156, September.
    2. Jung, Alexander, 2020. "An empirical analysis of loan supply and demand in the euro area," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 187-201.
    3. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    4. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    5. Vít Pošta & Zdeněk Pikhart, 2015. "Financial Risk and Real Variables: Evidence Based on a SVAR Analysis of the Czech Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 516-537.
    6. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    7. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    8. Burgstaller Johann, 2010. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission in Austria," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(2), pages 163-185, April.
    9. Josef Bajzik & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Klara Moravcova & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2023. "Monetary Policy Has a Long-Lasting Impact on Credit: Evidence from 91 VAR Studies," Working Papers 2023/19, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    10. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
    11. Carolina Pagliacci, 2019. "Are we ignoring supply shocks? A proposal for monitoring cyclical fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 445-467, February.
    12. Krainer, Robert E., 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 283-298.
    13. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    14. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.
    16. Iwedi Marshal, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Dynamic on Bank Lending Behavior in Nigeria," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(10), pages 131-139, October.
    17. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    18. Klaus Abberger & André Kunkel, 2008. "Unternehmen leiden kaum unter Finanzierungsschwierigkeiten durch die Finanzmarktkrise," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 29-31, May.
    19. Matthias Balz, 2008. "Branchen im Blickpunkt: Die ökologische Lebensmittelwirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 23-28, May.
    20. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    21. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Legrand, Romain, 2014. "Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-151.
    23. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Victor Pontines, 2021. "The real effects of loan-to-value limits: empirical evidence from Korea," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1311-1350, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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