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Are We Ignoring Supply Shocks? A Proposal for Monitoring Cyclical Fluctuations

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  • Carolina Pagliacci

    (Banco Central de Venezuela)

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship of credit repayment behavior with personal and cognitive characteristics and with preferences; in addition, it analyses the relationship of amounts of indebtedness with the same three variables. We developed and applied a survey to a random sample of clients of the Provident, a personal loan financial institution in Mexico. Our study concludes, firstly, that people with higher levels of perseverance and consistency of interest towards long term goals tend to complete all their payments on time. Secondly, the more impatient individuals are, the more they wish to repay their debts on time. Lastly, the greater an individual’s preference for receiving payments in the future, and the lower their educational level, the lower will be their amount of indebtedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolina Pagliacci, 2016. "Are We Ignoring Supply Shocks? A Proposal for Monitoring Cyclical Fluctuations," Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers 21, CEMLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cml:docinv:21
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Jui-Chuan Della & Jansen, Dennis W. & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2023. "Inflation and real GDP growth in the U.S.—Demand or supply driven?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    2. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2021. "The supply and demand-side impacts of uncertainty shocks. Evidence on advanced and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 108739, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bünyamin Fuat Yıldız & Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2022. "Analysing Monetary Policy Shocks by Sign and Parametric Restrictions: The Evidence from Russia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2018. "The dynamic effects of aggregate supply and demand shocks in the Mexican economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(1), pages 41-51.
    5. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2020. "Financial constraints and inflation in Latin America: The impacts of bond financing and depreciations on supply inflation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 379-397.
    6. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    7. Chirinos-Leañez, Ana María & Pagliacci, Carolina, 2017. "Credit Supply in Venezuela: A Non-Conventional Bank Lending Channel?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8256, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cyclical fluctuation; structural demand and supply identification; sign restriction identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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