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The predictive power of the yield spread in timing the stock market

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  • Bhaduri, Saumitra
  • Saraogi, Ravi

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between yield spread and stock market returns. It also explores a dynamic trading strategy of timing the Indian stock market using the yield spread as an indicator variable. The study concludes with the important result that the yield spread is successful in identifying points of entry and exit for the Indian stock market, thereby delivering superior returns compared to a conventional buy and hold strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhaduri, Saumitra & Saraogi, Ravi, 2010. "The predictive power of the yield spread in timing the stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 261-272, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:11:y:2010:i:3:p:261-272
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    Cited by:

    1. Arif Dar & Amaresh Samantaraya & Firdous Shah, 2014. "The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 887-901, May.
    2. Firdous Ahmad Shah & Lokenath Debnath, 2017. "Wavelet Neural Network Model for Yield Spread Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    3. Lohrmann, Christoph & Luukka, Pasi, 2019. "Classification of intraday S&P500 returns with a Random Forest," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 390-407.

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