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A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression

  • Weder, Mark

The Paper finds empirical evidence on the ripple effect of sunspots on the interwar German economy. It identifies a sequence of negative shocks to expectations for the 1927-32 period. The artificial economy predicts the 1928-32 depression and a long boom from 1933 onwards. Overall, a tangible fraction of interwar output volatility is attributed for by sunspots.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4191.

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Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4191
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  1. Salyer, Kevin D. & Sheffrin, Steven M., 1998. "Spotting sunspots: Some evidence in support of models with self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 511-523, October.
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  6. Mark Weder, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 53, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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  9. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 1996. "Real business cycles and sunspot fluctuations are observationally equivalent," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-117, February.
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  12. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Raff, Daniel M. G., 1991. "Intra-Industry Heterogeneity and the Great Depression: The American Motor Vehicles Industry, 1929–1935," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(02), pages 317-331, June.
  13. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2006. "Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1327-1339, October.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
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  19. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Mark Weder, 2006. "Some Observations on the Great Depression in Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 113-133, 02.
  21. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Accounting for the Great Depression (technical appendix)," Working Papers 619, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  22. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2003. "Accounting for the Great Depression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-8.
  23. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  24. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 161-194, February.
  25. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Unemployment Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 353-57, May.
  26. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 2002. "Data Appendix to The Role of Real Wages, Productivity, and Fiscal Policy in Germany's Great Depression 1928-37," Technical Appendices fisher02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  27. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448 Elsevier.
  28. Peter Temin, 1971. "The Beginning of the Depression in Germany," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 24(2), pages 240-248, 05.
  29. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
  30. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 2001. "The role of real wages, productivity, and fiscal policy in Germany's Great Depression, 1928-37," Working Paper 01-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  31. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
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