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Taylor Rules in Practice: How Central Banks can Intercept Sunspot Expectations

  • Weder, Mark

This Paper derives new results on the effects of employing Taylor rules in economies that are subject to real-market imperfections such as production externalities. It suggests that rules that should be avoided (chosen) in perfect-markets environments do in fact ensure (yield) unique (multiple) rational expectations solutions in alternative settings. Therefore, exact knowledge on the degree of market imperfection is pivotal for robust policy advice.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3899.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3899
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  1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2003. "Backward-Looking Interest Rate Rules, Interest Rate Smoothing and Macroeconomic Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 3928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 67-124 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
  5. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
  6. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  7. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000394, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. McCallum, Bennett T, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 870-904, November.
  10. Salyer, Kevin D., 1995. "The macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 215-242, February.
  11. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July.
  12. Benhabib, Jess & Wen, Yi, 2004. "Indeterminacy, aggregate demand, and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 503-530, April.
  13. Weder, Mark, 1998. "Fickle Consumers, Durable Goods, and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-57, July.
  14. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
  15. Perli, Roberto, 1998. "Indeterminacy, home production, and the business cycle: A calibrated analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125, February.
  16. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin J. Lansing, 1997. "Indeterminacy and stabilization policy," Working Paper 9708, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  17. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  18. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  19. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
  20. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  21. Laitner, John & Stolyarov, Dmitriy, 2004. "Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 191-233, January.
  22. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  23. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  24. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
  25. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
  26. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy J. Fuerst, 1999. "Forecasts and sunspots: looking back for a better future," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov.
  27. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
  28. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2000. "Comment on Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 905-30, November.
  29. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  30. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Tracing externalities as sources of indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-867, May.
  31. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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