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Taylor Rules in Practice: How Central Banks can Intercept Sunspot Expectations

  • Weder, Mark

This Paper derives new results on the effects of employing Taylor rules in economies that are subject to real-market imperfections such as production externalities. It suggests that rules that should be avoided (chosen) in perfect-markets environments do in fact ensure (yield) unique (multiple) rational expectations solutions in alternative settings. Therefore, exact knowledge on the degree of market imperfection is pivotal for robust policy advice.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3899.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3899
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  1. Perli, Roberto, 1998. "Indeterminacy, home production, and the business cycle: A calibrated analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125, February.
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  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," UCLA Economics Working Papers 680, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July.
  6. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  7. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 481-490, October.
  8. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1996. "Returns to scale in U.S. production: estimates and implications," International Finance Discussion Papers 546, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
  10. Salyer, Kevin D., 1995. "The macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 215-242, February.
  11. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1991. "Productive externalities and business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  12. Burnside, C & Eichenbaum, M & Rebelo, S, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," RCER Working Papers 402, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J, 2000. "Comment on Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 905-30, November.
  14. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
  15. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1999. "Forecasts and sunspots: looking back for a better future," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov.
  16. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000394, UCLA Department of Economics.
  17. Benhabib, J. & Schmitt-Grohe, S. & Uribe, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," Working Papers 98-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  18. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
  19. Jess Benhabib & Stephanie Schitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 14 Feb 2003.
  20. Laitner, John & Stolyarov, Dmitriy, 2004. "Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 191-233, January.
  21. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 7677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Weder, Mark, 1998. "Fickle Consumers, Durable Goods, and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-57, July.
  24. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
  26. Benhabib, Jess & Wen, Yi, 2001. "Indeterminacy, Aggregate Demand, and the Real Business Cycle," Working Papers 01-09r, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  27. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  28. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1995. "Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Paper 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  30. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  31. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Tracing externalities as sources of indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-867, May.
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