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Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Preempt Sunspot Expectations

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  • Weder, Mark

Abstract

This paper derives new results on the effects of employing Taylor rules in economies that are subject to real market imperfections such as production externalities. Policies which respond to output movements can block sunspot equilibria that arise from the increasing returns. The paper also finds that rules which should be chosen (avoided) in perfect market environments often yield (ensure) multiple (unique) rational expectations solutions in alternative settings. Therefore, exact knowledge on the degree of market imperfection may be integral for robust policy advice.

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  • Weder, Mark, 2006. "Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Preempt Sunspot Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 655-677, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:3:p:655-677
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0049
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Tracing externalities as sources of indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-867, May.
    2. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
    3. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 1998. "Indeterminacy and Stabilization Policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 481-490, October.
    4. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 3-31.
    5. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications," NBER Working Papers 9420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    7. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
    8. Weder, Mark, 1998. "Fickle Consumers, Durable Goods, and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-57, July.
    9. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    10. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July.
    11. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    12. Salyer, Kevin D., 1995. "The macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 215-242, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Donald A. R. George & Les Oxley, 2013. "Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique," ESE Discussion Papers 217, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    2. Chen, Shu-Hua, 2015. "Macroeconomic (In)Stability Of Interest Rate Rules In A Model With Banking System And Reserve Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(07), pages 1476-1508, October.
    3. Mark Weder, 2006. "Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stabilization," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, pages 195-204.
    4. Schabert, Andreas & Stoltenberg, Christian, 2005. "Money Demand and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 4974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mark Weder, 2008. "Sticky Prices and Indeterminacy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1073-1082, August.

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