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Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

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    This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scientifically valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

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    File URL: http://www.econ.ed.ac.uk/papers/id217_esedps.pdf
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    Paper provided by Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh in its series ESE Discussion Papers with number 217.

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    Length: 19
    Date of creation: 11 Feb 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:217
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    1. Søren Bo Nielsen & Peter Birch Sørensen, 1989. "Capital Income Taxation in a Growing Open Economy," Discussion Papers 89-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    2. van de Klundert, Theo, 1991. "Reducing external debt in a world with imperfect asset and imperfect commodity substitution," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 17-40, April.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 1990. "Dynamic Responses to Policy and Exogenous Shocks in an Empirical Developing-Country Model with Rational Expectations," IMF Working Papers 90/25, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-99, June.
    5. Neary, J Peter & Purvis, Douglas D, 1982. " Sectoral Shocks in a Dependent Economy: Long-run Adjustment and Short-run Accommodation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 229-53.
    6. Weder, Mark, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Pre-empt Sunspot Expectations," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,49, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    7. Chiarella, Carl, 1991. "The bifurcation of probability distributions in a non-linear rational expectations model of monetary economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-78, April.
    8. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1983. "Competitive Equilibrium Cycles," Working Papers 83-30, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    9. Buiter, W, 1982. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models : A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 200, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness: The Problems of Adjustment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 143-75, Supplemen.
    11. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
    12. Chiarella, Carl, 1990. "Excessive exchange rate variability : A possible explanation using nonlinear economic dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 315-352, December.
    13. Frank, Murray Z & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. " Chaotic Dynamics in Economic Time-Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 103-33.
    14. Bankim Chadha, 1991. "Wages, Profitability, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 59-82, March.
    15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521643511 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1991. "Money and Capital in Interdependent Economies with Overlapping Generations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(230), pages 233-56, May.
    17. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J., 1991. "Reducing external debt in a world with imperfect asset and imperfect commodity substitution," Other publications TiSEM c2b704f4-8575-4186-9a8f-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. George, Donald A R, 1981. "Equilibrium and Catastrophes in Economics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 43-61, February.
    19. Chiarella, Carl, 1986. "Perfect foresight models and the dynamic instability problem from a higher viewpoint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 283-292, October.
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