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Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scientifically valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

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Paper provided by Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh in its series ESE Discussion Papers with number 217.

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Length: 19
Date of creation: 11 Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:edn:esedps:217
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  1. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Partha Sen, 1990. "Fiscal Policy, Capital Accumulation, and Debt in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 3489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. van de Klundert, Theo, 1991. "Reducing external debt in a world with imperfect asset and imperfect commodity substitution," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 17-40, April.
  4. International Monetary Fund, 1990. "Dynamic Responses to Policy and Exogenous Shocks in an Empirical Developing-Country Model with Rational Expectations," IMF Working Papers 90/25, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Desai, Meghnad, 1973. "Growth cycles and inflation in a model of the class struggle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 527-545, December.
  6. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1991. "Money and Capital in Interdependent Economies with Overlapping Generations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(230), pages 233-56, May.
  7. Neary, J Peter & Purvis, Douglas D, 1982. " Sectoral Shocks in a Dependent Economy: Long-run Adjustment and Short-run Accommodation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 229-53.
  8. Buiter, W, 1982. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models : A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 200, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  9. Søren Bo Nielsen & Peter Birch Sørensen, 1989. "Capital Income Taxation in a Growing Open Economy," Discussion Papers 89-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  10. Weder, Mark, 2006. "Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Preempt Sunspot Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 655-677, April.
  11. Bankim Chadha, 1991. "Wages, Profitability, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 59-82, March.
  12. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
  13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521643511 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Nguyen, Duc-Tho, 1980. "Perfect myopic foresight and the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a simple inflationary model : Some analytical and numerical results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 237-269.
  16. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J., 1991. "Reducing external debt in a world with imperfect asset and imperfect commodity substitution," Other publications TiSEM c2b704f4-8575-4186-9a8f-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  17. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-99, June.
  18. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  19. Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Wells, Graeme, 2003. "The Dynamics Of Keynesian Monetary Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(03), pages 473-475, June.
  20. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter.
  21. Chiarella, Carl, 1990. "Excessive exchange rate variability : A possible explanation using nonlinear economic dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 315-352, December.
  22. Michele Boldrin & Michael Woodford, 1988. "Equilibruim Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey," UCLA Economics Working Papers 530, UCLA Department of Economics.
  23. Chiarella, Carl, 1991. "The bifurcation of probability distributions in a non-linear rational expectations model of monetary economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-78, April.
  24. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
  25. George, Donald A R, 1981. "Equilibrium and Catastrophes in Economics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 43-61, February.
  26. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
  27. Sussman, Oren, 1991. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Tax on Bond Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 352-66, August.
  28. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  29. Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness: The Problems of Adjustment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(0), pages 143-75, Supplemen.
  30. Nishimura, Kazuo, 1985. "Competitive equilibrium cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 284-306, August.
  31. Chiarella, Carl, 1986. "Perfect foresight models and the dynamic instability problem from a higher viewpoint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 283-292, October.
  32. Frank, Murray Z & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. " Chaotic Dynamics in Economic Time-Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 103-33.
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