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Rational Expectations Dynamics: A Methodological Critique

  • Donald A. R., George
  • Les, Oxley

This paper analyses RE macromodels from the methodological perspective. It proposes a particular property, robustness, which should be considered a necessary feature of scienti cally valid models in economics, but which is absent from many RE macromodels. To restore this property many macroeconomists resort to detailed and implausible assumptions, which take their models a long way from simple Rational Expectations. The paper draws attention to the problems inherent in the technique of local linearisation and concludes by proposing the use of nonlinear models, analysed globally.

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File URL: http://repo.sire.ac.uk/handle/10943/472
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Paper provided by Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE) in its series SIRE Discussion Papers with number 2013-45.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:472
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  1. Van De Klundert, T., 1989. "Reducing External Debt In A World With Imperfect Assets And Imperfect Commodity Substitution," Papers 8929a, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  2. Baumol, William J & Benhabib, Jess, 1989. "Chaos: Significance, Mechanism, and Economic Applications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 77-105, Winter.
  3. Bankim Chadha, 1991. "Wages, Profitability, and Growth in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 59-82, March.
  4. Michele Boldrin & Michael Woodford, 1988. "Equilibruim Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey," UCLA Economics Working Papers 530, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Chiarella, Carl, 1991. "The bifurcation of probability distributions in a non-linear rational expectations model of monetary economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 65-78, April.
  6. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
  7. Willem H. Buiter, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Contifuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Ehamples," NBER Technical Working Papers 0020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, Sunspots, and Automatic Stabilizers," NBER Working Papers 5703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-99, June.
  10. Stephen J. Turnovsky & Partha Sen, 1990. "Fiscal Policy, Capital Accumulation, and Debt in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 3489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. George, Donald A R, 1981. "Equilibrium and Catastrophes in Economics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 28(1), pages 43-61, February.
  12. Weder, Mark, 2006. "Taylor Rules and Macroeconomic Instability or How the Central Bank Can Preempt Sunspot Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 655-677, April.
  13. Sussman, Oren, 1991. "Macroeconomic Effects of a Tax on Bond Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 352-66, August.
  14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  15. Desai, Meghnad, 1973. "Growth cycles and inflation in a model of the class struggle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(6), pages 527-545, December.
  16. Nielsen, Soren Bo & Sorensen, Peter Birch, 1991. "Capital income taxation in a growing open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 179-197, January.
  17. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Scholarly Articles 12491027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  18. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
  19. Frank, Murray Z & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. " Chaotic Dynamics in Economic Time-Series," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 103-33.
  20. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1991. "Money and Capital in Interdependent Economies with Overlapping Generations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(230), pages 233-56, May.
  21. van de Klundert, T.C.M.J., 1991. "Reducing external debt in a world with imperfect asset and imperfect commodity substitution," Other publications TiSEM c2b704f4-8575-4186-9a8f-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  22. Chiarella, Carl, 1986. "Perfect foresight models and the dynamic instability problem from a higher viewpoint," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 283-292, October.
  23. Nishimura, Kazuo, 1985. "Competitive equilibrium cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 284-306, August.
  24. Chiarella, Carl, 1990. "Excessive exchange rate variability : A possible explanation using nonlinear economic dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 315-352, December.
  25. Turnovsky, Stephen J. & Nguyen, Duc-Tho, 1980. "Perfect myopic foresight and the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in a simple inflationary model : Some analytical and numerical results," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 237-269.
  26. International Monetary Fund, 1990. "Dynamic Responses to Policy and Exogenous Shocks in an Empirical Developing-Country Model with Rational Expectations," IMF Working Papers 90/25, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(1), pages 132-43, March.
  28. Froot, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  29. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521643511 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Neary, J Peter & Purvis, Douglas D, 1982. " Sectoral Shocks in a Dependent Economy: Long-run Adjustment and Short-run Accommodation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 229-53.
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