On the Indeterminacy of Determinacy and Indeterminacy
A number of authors have attempted to test whether the US economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Both models have the same likelihood function and are therefore observationally equivalent.
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- Roger E.A. Farmer & Jang Ting Guo, 1992.
"Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
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- Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 19-28.
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"Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
646, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1991. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Working Papers 91-59, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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"The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 1994. "The Econometrics of Indeterminacy: An Applied Study," UCLA Economics Working Papers 720, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
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