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On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

Author

Listed:
  • Beyer, Andreas
  • Farmer, Roger E. A.

Abstract

A number of authors have attempted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1 displays an indeterminate equilibrium, driven by sunspots. Model 2 displays a determinate equilibrium driven by fundamentals. Given assumptions about the shock distribution of model 2, it is possible to find a distribution of sunspot shocks that drive model 1 such that the two models are observationally equivalent. JEL Classification: C39, C62, D51

Suggested Citation

  • Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2003. "On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy," Working Paper Series 277, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2003277
    Note: 336354
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp277.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    3. Farmer, Roger E. A. & Jang-Ting, Guo, 1995. "The econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 225-271, December.
    4. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "Aggregate returns to scale: why measurement is imprecise," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Sum), pages 19-28.
    5. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    6. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Weder, 2006. "A heliocentric journey into Germany's Great Depression," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 288-316, April.
    2. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    3. Ascari, Guido & Rankin, Neil, 2007. "Perpetual youth and endogenous labor supply: A problem and a possible solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 708-723, December.
    4. Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Indeterminacy Produces Determinacy," IDEI Working Papers 333, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    5. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2010. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 43-69, January.
    6. Batini, Nicoletta & Justiniano, Alejandro & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2006. "Robust inflation-forecast-based rules to shield against indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1491-1526.
    7. Beyer, Andreas & Farmer, Roger E. A., 2006. "A method to generate structural impulse-responses for measuring the effects of shocks in structural macro models," Working Paper Series 586, European Central Bank.
    8. Carrillo, Julio A. & Fève, Patrick, 2004. "Some Perils of Policy Rule Regression," IDEI Working Papers 301, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    9. Shea, Paul, 2008. "Real-time rational expectations and indeterminacy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 530-533, June.
    10. Jagjit S. Chadha & Luisa Corrado, 2006. "On the Determinacy of Monetary Policy under Expectational Errors," CDMA Working Paper Series 200603, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis, revised 15 Apr 2007.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    identification; indeterminacy;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies

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