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Learnability and equilibrium selection under indeterminacy

  • Hirose, Yasuo

This paper presents an equilibrium selection procedure for linear rational expectations models under equilibrium indeterminacy. In the procedure, a specific equilibrium is chosen such that the perceived law of motion for agents with adaptive learning rules converges to the particular solution. The procedure is applicable only under empirically implausible parameter settings if the agents perceive fundamental shock processes completely. However, if they misperceive the fundamental shocks in some degree, the procedure works under plausible parameters. It is also demonstrated that the selected particular solution exhibits different dynamics from that under the assumption often made in the literature.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 3459-3477

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:11:p:3459-3477
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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  1. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
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  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lubik, Thomas A. & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 273-285, November.
  11. George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Indeterminacy and the Stability Puzzle in Non-Convex Economies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-14, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 27 Aug 2005.
  12. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  13. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
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