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Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models

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  • Luca Fanelli

    (luca.fanelli@unibo.it)

Abstract

This paper proposes a testing strategy for the null hypothesis that a multivariate linear rational expectations (LRE) model has a unique stable solution (determinacy) against the alternative of multiple stable solutions (indeterminacy). Under a proper set of identification restrictions, determinacy is investigated by a misspecification-type approach in which the result of the overidentifying restrictions test obtained from the estimation of the LRE model through a version of generalized method of moments is combined with the result of a likelihood-based test for the cross-equation restrictions that the LRE places on its finite order reduced form under determinacy. This approach (i) circumvents the nonstandard inferential problem that a purely likelihood-based approach implies because of the presence of nuisance parameters that appear under the alternative but not under the null, (ii) does not involve inequality parametric restrictions and nonstandard asymptotic distributions, and (iii) gives rise to a joint test which is consistent against indeterminacy almost everywhere in the space of nuisance parameters, i.e. except for a point of zero measure which gives rise to minimum state variable solutions, and is also consistent against the dynamic misspecification of the LRE model. Monte Carlo simulations show that the testing strategy delivers reasonable size coverage and power in finite samples. An empirical illustration focuses on the determinacy/indeterminacy of a New Keynesian monetary business cycle model for the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Fanelli, 2010. "Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models," Quaderni di Dipartimento 4, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
  • Handle: RePEc:bot:quadip:wpaper:100
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Khramov, Vadim & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2015. "Solving and estimating indeterminate DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-36.
    2. William, Barnett & Hu, Jingxian, 2017. "Capital Control, Exchange Rate Regime, and Monetary Policy: Indeterminacy and Bifurcation," MPRA Paper 81450, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2015. "Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Results from A Robust Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 924-947, September.
    4. Marco M. Sorge, 2013. "On the Fundamentalness of Nonfundamentalness in DSGE Models," CSEF Working Papers 340, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    5. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    6. Gunnar BÃ¥rdsen & Luca Fanelli, 2015. "Frequentist Evaluation of Small DSGE Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 307-322, July.
    7. repec:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:57-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015. "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers 402, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Determinatezza; Indeterminatezza; Massima verosimiglianza; Metodo generalizzato dei momenti; Modello lineare con aspettative; Identificazione; Variabili Strumentali; VAR; VARMA Determinacy; Generalized method of moments; Indeterminacy; LRE model; Identification; Instrumental Variables; Maximum Likelihood; VAR; VARMA;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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