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Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Results from a Robust Test

Author

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  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    () (University of Padova)

  • Luca Fanelli

    () (University of Bologna)

Abstract

We propose a novel identification-robust test for the null hypothesis that an estimated new-Keynesian model has a reduced form consistent with the unique stable solution against the alternative of sunspot-driven multiple equilibria. Our strategy is designed to handle identification failures as well as the misspecification of the relevant propagation mechanisms. We invert a likelihood ratio test for the cross-equation restrictions (CER) that the new Keynesian system places on its reduced form solution under determinacy. If the CER are not rejected, sunspot-driven expectations can be ruled out from the model equilibrium and we accept the structural model. Otherwise, we move to a second-step and invert an Anderson and Rubin-type test for the orthogonality restrictions (OR) implied by the system of Euler equations. The hypothesis of indeterminacy and the structural model are accepted if the OR are not rejected. We investigate the finite sample performance of the suggested identification-robust two-steps testing strategy by some Monte Carlo experiments and then apply it to a new-Keynesian AD/AS model estimated with actual U.S. data. In spite of some evidence of weak identification as for the ÒGreat ModerationÓ period, our results offer formal support to the hypothesis of a switch from indeterminacy to a scenario consistent with uniqueness occurred in the late 1970s. Our identification-robust full-information confidence set for the structural parameters computed on the ÒGreat ModerationÓ regime turn out to be more precise than the intervals previously reported in the literature through Òlimited informationÓ methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2014. "Monetary Policy Indeterminacy and Identification Failures in the U.S.: Results from a Robust Test," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0183, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  • Handle: RePEc:pad:wpaper:0183
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. West, Kenneth D., 1986. "Full-versus limited-information estimation of a rational-expectations model: Some numerical comparisons," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 367-385, December.
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    3. Fanelli, Luca, 2012. "Determinacy, indeterminacy and dynamic misspecification in linear rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 153-163.
    4. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2013. "Identification-robust analysis of DSGE and structural macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 340-350.
    5. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2009. "Structural Multi-Equation Macroeconomic Models: Identification-Robust Estimation and Fit," Staff Working Papers 09-19, Bank of Canada.
    6. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral, 2010. "On the precision of Calvo parameter estimates in structural NKPC models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1582-1595, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Angelini & Luca Fanelli, 2016. "Misspecification and Expectations Correction in New Keynesian DSGE Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(5), pages 623-649, October.
    2. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2018. "To sign or not to sign? On the response of prices to financial and uncertainty shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 189-192.
    3. Bernd Funovits, 2020. "The Dimension of the Set of Causal Solutions of Linear Multivariate Rational Expectations Models," Papers 2002.04369, arXiv.org.
    4. Angelini, Giovanni, 2020. "Bootstrap lag selection in DSGE models with expectations correction," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 38-48.
    5. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nodari, Gabriela, 2018. "Risk management-driven policy rate gap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 235-238.
    6. Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015. "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers 402, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    7. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Khramov, Vadim & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2015. "Solving and estimating indeterminate DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-36.
    8. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2016. "Modest macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks during the great moderation: An alternative interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 300-314.
    9. Angelini, Giovanni & Gorgi, Paolo, 2018. "DSGE Models with observation-driven time-varying volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 169-171.
    10. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 323-335, September.
    11. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo Hedibert F. Lopes, 2016. "Rational Sunspots," Economics Series Working Papers 787, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Fanelli, Luca & Sorge, Marco M., 2017. "Indeterminate forecast accuracy under indeterminacy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 57-70.
    13. Dave, Chetan & Sorge, Marco M., 2020. "Sunspot-driven fat tails: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    14. Giovanni Angelini & Paolo Gorgi, 2018. "DSGE Models with Observation-Driven Time-Varying parameters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-030/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Hedibert Lopes, 2018. "Walk on the wild side: Multiplicative sunspots and temporarily unstable paths," DNB Working Papers 597, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric, 2018. "Comparing hybrid time-varying parameter VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-5.
    17. Krogh, Tord S., 2015. "Macro frictions and theoretical identification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 191-204.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Confidence set; Determinacy; Identification failures; Indeterminacy; Misspecification; new-Keynesian business cycle model; VAR system.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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