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Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation Dynamics in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Qazi Haque
  • Leandro M. Magnusson

Abstract

We estimate a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) with stochastic volatility using post- WWII U.S. data to study the effects of uncertainty shocks on inflation. We find the response of inflation to be statistically insignificant until mid-to-late 1990s and negative thereafter. Our findings suggest that uncertainty shocks do not propagate like aggregate supply shocks and look like aggregate demand shocks since late 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation Dynamics in the US," CAMA Working Papers 2020-100, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-100
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-05/100_2020_Haque_Magnusson.pdf
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Research Review | 27 November 2020 | Inflation
      by James Picerno in The Capital Spectator on 2020-11-27 05:02:31

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    2. Usman, Ojonugwa & Ozkan, Oktay & Koy, Ayben & Adebayo, Tomiwa Sunday, 2024. "Energy-related uncertainty shocks and inflation dynamics in the U.S: A multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 235-247.
    3. Lorente, Daniel Balsalobre & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier & Shahzad, Umer, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness among climate change index, green financial assets and renewable energy markets: Novel evidence from sustainable development perspective," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 94-105.
    4. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Arne Gieseck, 2025. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2829-2872, June.
    5. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2026. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation: The role of credibility and expectation anchoring," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Paula Morales-Bañuelos & Guillermo Fernández-Anaya, 2023. "Default Probabilities and the Credit Spread of Mexican Companies: The Modified Merton Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-30, October.
    7. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1012-1035, December.
    8. Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun & Mosab I. Tabash & Xuan Vinh Vo & Suhaib Anagreh, 2023. "Uncertainty measures and inflation dynamics in selected global players: a wavelet approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3389-3424, August.
    9. Pintér, Gábor, 2023. "Inflation and uncertainty in New Keynesian models: A note," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Brignone, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Ricci, Martino, 2024. "Geopolitical risk shocks: when size matters," Working Paper Series 2972, European Central Bank.
    11. Shahzad, Umer & Mohammed, Kamel Si & Tiwari, Sunil & Nakonieczny, Joanna & Nesterowicz, Renata, 2023. "Connectedness between geopolitical risk, financial instability indices and precious metals markets: Novel findings from Russia Ukraine conflict perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa & Duman, Gazi Murat, 2024. "Nonlinear network connectedness: Assessing financial risk transmission in MENA and influence of external financial conditions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    13. Zouhaier Dhifaoui & Kaies Ncibi & Faicel Gasmi & Abulmajeed Abdallah Alqarni, 2023. "The Nexus between Climate Change and Geopolitical Risk Index in Saudi Arabia Based on the Fourier-Domain Transfer Entropy Spectrum Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-22, September.
    14. Albrecht, Peter & Kočenda, Evžen, 2024. "Volatility connectedness on the central European forex markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2023. "How susceptible is the European financial stability to economic policy uncertainty?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 864-875.
    16. Khurshid, Adnan & Chen, Yufeng & Rauf, Abdur & Khan, Khalid, 2023. "Critical metals in uncertainty: How Russia-Ukraine conflict drives their prices?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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