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Risk management-driven policy rate gap

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  • Caggiano, Giovanni
  • Castelnuovo, Efrem
  • Nodari, Gabriela

Abstract

We employ real-time data available to the US monetary policy makers to estimate a Taylor rule augmented with a measure of financial uncertainty over the period 1969–2008. We find evidence in favor of a systematic response to financial uncertainty over and above that to expected inflation, output gap, and output growth. However, this evidence regards the Greenspan–Bernanke period only. Focusing on this period, the ”risk-management” approach is found to be responsible for monetary policy easings for up to 75 basis points of the federal funds rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nodari, Gabriela, 2018. "Risk management-driven policy rate gap," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 235-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:171:y:2018:i:c:p:235-238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.08.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    2. Martin Seneca, 2020. "Risk Shocks and Monetary Policy in the New Normal," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 185-232, December.
    3. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
    5. Thomas Gomez & Giulia Piccillo, 2023. "Does U.S. Monetary Policy Respond to Macroeconomic Uncertainty?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10407, CESifo.
    6. Céline Poilly & Fabien Tripier, 2023. "Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2321, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Delrio, Silvia & Kima, Richard, 2021. "Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Rangan Gupta & Mark Wohar, 2019. "The role of monetary policy uncertainty in predicting equity market volatility of the United Kingdom: evidence from over 150 years of data," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 138-146.
    9. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2022. "Uncertainty and monetary policy in good and bad times: A replication of the vector autoregressive investigation by Bloom (2009)," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 210-217, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management-driven policy rate gap; Uncertainty; Monetary policy; Taylor rules; Real-time data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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