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Full Versus Limited Information Estimation of a Rational Expectations Model: Some Numerical Comparisons

  • Kenneth D. West

This paper compares numerically the asymptotic distributions of parameter estimates and test statistics associated with two estimation techniques: (a)a limited information one, which uses instrumental variables to estimate a single equation (Hansen and Singleton (1982)), and (b)a full information one, which uses a procedure asymptotically equivalent to maximum likelihood to simultaneously estimate multiple equations (Hansen and Sargent (1980)). The paper compares the two with respect to both (1)asymptotic efficiency under the null hypothesis of no misspecification, and (2)asymptotic bias and power in the presence of certain local alternatives. It is found that: (l)Full information standard errors are only moderately smaller than limited information standard errors. (2)When the model is misspecified, full information tests tend to be more powerful, and its parameter estimates tend to be more biased. This suggests that at least in the model considered here, the gains from the use of the less robust and computationally more complex full information technique are not particularly large.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/t0054.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Technical Working Papers with number 0054.

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Date of creation: Feb 1986
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Publication status: published as West, Kenneth D. Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 33, 1986, pp. 367-386.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberte:0054
Note: EFG
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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  1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1983. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 365-400, June.
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  3. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  5. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-98, May.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  7. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "What Is Left of the Multiplier Accelerator?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 150-54, May.
  8. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models," Staff Report 70, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  10. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Skoog, Gary R, 1984. "Local Asymptotic Specification Error Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 873-85, July.
  11. Chow, Gregory C., 1980. "Estimation of rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 241-255, May.
  12. West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-80, August.
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