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The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

A more sophisticated expectational hypothesis than is traditionally used in the specification of macroeconometric models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z(t) in forming their expectations for periods t+l and beyond. These expectations may or may not be rational in the Muth sense. The results provide some evidence in favor of the more sophisticated hypothesis, but they are not strong enough to allow much weight tobe put on the hypothesis as yet. The evidence in favor of the hypothesis is strongest for households' response to future wages and prices in their consumption and labor supply decisions and for the Fed's response to future inflation rates.The sensitivity of the policy properties of my macroeconometric model to the more sophisticated hypothesis is also examined in the paper. The properties are not sensitive for a policy action in which government expenditures are changed. They are somewhat sensitive for an action in which personal tax rates are changed. In the latter case the properties are also sensitive to whether or not the policy action is anticipated.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1984. "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 1445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1445
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Fair, Ray C, 1979. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 539-552, September.
    3. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-798, May.
    4. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Effect of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 1293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    6. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "The nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 105-110, July.
    7. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    9. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
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    1. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model," NBER Working Papers 2112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. McKenzie, C. R., 1992. "Money demand in an open economy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 176-198, June.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 810, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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