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Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

Three models of price and wage behavior are estimated and tested in this paper. Model 1 is one in which the long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation is in terms of price levels; Model 2 is one in which the trade-off is in terms of rates of change; and Model 3 is one in which there is no long-run trade-off. The evidence favors Model 1 over Models 2 and 3. The comparison between Models 2 and 3 is inconclusive. The short-run trade-offs are greater for Model 1 than for Models 2 and 3. The fact that Model 3 did not do particularly well is evidence against the Friedman-Phelps proposition of no long-run trade-off.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Estimated tradeoffs between unemployment and inflation," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 57-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:1984:p:57-96
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    2. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models," NBER Working Papers 1445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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