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The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models

A more sophisticated expectational hypothesis than is traditionally used in the specification of macroeconometric models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z_{t} in forming their expectations for periods t+1 and beyond. These expectations may or may not be rational in the Muth sense. The results provide some evidence in favor of the more sophisticated hypothesis, but they are not strong enough to allow much weight to be put on the hypothesis as yet. The evidence in favor of the hypothesis is strongest for households' response to future wages and prices in their consumption and labor supply decisions and for the Fed's response to future inflation rates. The sensitivity of the policy properties of my macroeconometric model to the more sophisticated hypothesis is also examined in the paper. The properties are not sensitive for a policy action in which government expenditures are changed. They are somewhat sensitive for an action in which personal tax rates are changed. In the latter case the properties are also sensitive to whether or not the policy action is anticipated.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d07a/d0718.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 718.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: May 1984
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:718
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Order Information: Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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  1. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  3. Ray C. Fair, 1977. "An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectationsin the Bond and Stock Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 459, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Ray C. Fair, 1984. "Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 693, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1974. "The nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 105-110, July.
  6. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-98, May.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1983. "Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
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