IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genstf/198501010800008872.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predictive econometric modeling of the United States farmland market: an empirical test of the rational expectations hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Moore, Kevin Clare

Abstract

Farmland values play a major role in the health of the U.S. agricultural economy. In order to better understand the forces affecting land prices, a simultaneous demand and supply model of the agricultural real estate market is constructed;Price and quantity are jointly dependent variables. Independent variables include anticipations about future land prices, or simply expected capital gains. Three different formulations are used to represent these expectations; naive, adaptive, and rational expectations;Under naive expectations, anticipated land values are simply the last observed value. Under adaptive expectations, land value expectations are a weighted average of past levels. The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) asserts that all relevant information is used when forecasts are made. Thus, expected land values are derived from the anticipated values of the independent variables;Two-stage least squares estimation of the model without capital gains provided good results. Correct hypothesized signs and high significance levels for current price (or quantity) in each equation suggest simultaneity is in fact appropriate for the farmland market. Demand was found to be responsive to farmers' debt/equity ratio and off-farm income, average farm size, the Federal Land Bank interest rate, the percentage of rented land, and population. The income return to land was insignificant. Supply was influenced by farmers' income from the farm and debt/equity ratio, the number of farm foreclosures, and yield on preferred stocks, and positively related to the income return to farmland. Ex post simulation of this model provided good results;The addition of capital gains expectations provided the empirical test of the REH. Naive expectations appeared to be the best specification for expected capital gains. Price simulation, the main purpose of the model, was best in this case. Adaptive expectations entered with less disruption, but also less significance. Little if any support was garnered for the validity of the REH as applied to the farm real estate market. The variables showed little statistical significance, often were of incorrect expected sign, and severely altered the other coefficients. An ex ante forecast was run and impact multipliers calculated for the naive expectations model.

Suggested Citation

  • Moore, Kevin Clare, 1985. "Predictive econometric modeling of the United States farmland market: an empirical test of the rational expectations hypothesis," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008872, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:198501010800008872
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dr.lib.iastate.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/65d8e97e-4d37-4c1f-8fb6-ad0eb1359b32/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 207-237, April.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Prices of Land and Gold," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 221-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    5. Sargent, Thomas J. & Wallace, Neil, 1976. "Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 169-183, April.
    6. Frydman, Roman, 1982. "Towards an Understanding of Market Processes: Individual Expectations, Learning, and Convergence to Rational Expectations Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 652-668, September.
    7. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    8. Luther G. Tweeten & James E. Martin, 1966. "A Methodology for Predicting U.S. Farm Real Estate Price Variation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 378-393.
    9. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    10. Peter J. Barry, 1980. "Capital Asset Pricing and Farm Real Estate," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(3), pages 549-553.
    11. Duane G. Harris, 1977. "Inflation-Indexed Price Supports and Land Values," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(3), pages 489-495.
    12. Reynolds, John Everett, 1966. "An econometric investigation of farmland values in the United States," ISU General Staff Papers 196601010800004120, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Full Information Instrumental Variables Estimation of Simultaneous Equations Systems," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 641-652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. J. A. Boan, 1955. "A Study of Farmers' Reactions to Uncertain Price Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 90-95.
    15. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 555-561, October.
    16. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Prices of Land and Corporate Stock," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 229-242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Bennett T. McCallum, 1980. "The Significance of Rational Expectations Theory," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 37-43, January.
    18. Brian S. Fisher, 1982. "Rational Expectations in Agricultural Economics Research and Policy Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(2), pages 260-265.
    19. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Predictive Efficiency of Economic Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 331-343, July.
    20. Walter E. Chryst, 1965. "Land Values and Agricultural Income: A Paradox?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1265-1273.
    21. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
    22. Sargent, Thomas J, 1976. "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 631-640, June.
    23. Hausman, Jerry A., 1983. "Specification and estimation of simultaneous equation models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 391-448, Elsevier.
    24. Kul B. Bhatia, 1971. "On Estimating Capital Gains in U. S. Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(3), pages 502-506.
    25. Pierce, David A., 1975. "Forecasting in dynamic models with stochastic regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 349-374, November.
    26. Robinson, P M, 1974. "Identification, Estimation and Large-Sample Theory for Regressions Containing Unobservable Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(3), pages 680-692, October.
    27. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
    28. Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-1385, September.
    29. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
    30. Stephen J. DeCanio, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57.
    31. Lee, Warren F. & Rask, Norman, 1976. "Inflation And Crop Profitability: How Much Can Farmers Pay For Land?," 1976 Annual Meeting, August 15-18, State College, Pennsylvania 283820, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    32. Hausman, Jerry A, 1975. "An Instrumental Variable Approach to Full Information Estimators for Linear and Certain Nonlinear Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(4), pages 727-738, July.
    33. Duane G. Harris & Richard F. Nehring, 1976. "Impact of Farm Size on the Bidding Potential for Agricultural Land," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(2), pages 161-169.
    34. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    35. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
    36. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 199-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    37. Wegge, Leon L. & Feldman, Mark, 1983. "Identifiability criteria for Muth-rational expectations models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 245-254, February.
    38. Robert W. Herdt & Willard W. Cochrane, 1966. "Farm Land Prices and Farm Technological Advance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 48(2), pages 243-263.
    39. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Estimation of Econometric Models: AnAlternative Procedure," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 484-490, June.
    40. W. J. Martin & Earl O. Heady, 1982. "Inflationary Expectations and the Value of U.S. Farm Real Estate: Some Consistent Estimates," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 82-wp1, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    41. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Wachter, Michael L, 1972. "A Test of the "Expectations Hypothesis" Using Directly Observed Wage and Price Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(1), pages 47-54, February.
    42. repec:bla:econom:v:40:y:1973:i:157:p:12-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Sheffrin,Steven M., 1996. "Rational Expectations," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521479394, September.
    44. Revankar, Nagesh S, 1980. "Testing of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1347-1363, September.
    45. Emile Grunberg & Franco Modigliani, 1954. "The Predictability of Social Events," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(6), pages 465-465.
    46. Emanuel Melichar, 1979. "Capital Gains versus Current Income in the Farming Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(5), pages 1085-1092.
    47. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    48. James S. Plaxico & Darrel D. Kletke, 1979. "The Value of Unrealized Farm Land Capital Gains," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 327-330.
    49. James L. Hedrick, 1962. "The Effects of the Price-Support Program for Peanuts on the Sale Value of Farms," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1749-1753.
    50. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    51. Maddock, Rodney & Carter, Michael, 1982. "A Child's Guide to Rational Expectations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 39-51, March.
    52. Roy D. Adams, 1977. "The Effect of Income Tax Progressivity on Valuations of Income Streams by Individuals," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(3), pages 538-542.
    53. Grove, Ernest W., 1960. "Farm Capital Gains—A Supplement to Farm Income?," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 12(2), pages 1-6, April.
    54. Goodwin, Thomas H & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1982. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in an Agricultural Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 658-667, November.
    55. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1972. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Regressions Containing Unobservable Independent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, February.
    56. Michael Boehlje & Steven Griffin, 1979. "Financial Impacts of Government Support Price Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 285-296.
    57. Luther G. Tweeten, 1969. "Theories Explaining the Persistence of Low Resource Returns in a Growing Farm Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(4), pages 798-817.
    58. Ed Renshaw, 1957. "Are Land Prices too High: A Note on Behavior in the Land Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 505-510.
    59. Haim Shalit & Andrew Schmitz, 1982. "Farmland Accumulation and Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 64(4), pages 710-719.
    60. B. S. Fisher & Carolyn Tanner, 1978. "The Formulation of Price Expectations: An Empirical Test of Theoretical Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 60(2), pages 245-248.
    61. William E. Kost, 1968. "Rates of Return for Farm Real Estate and Common Stock," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 213-224.
    62. Warren F. Lee & Norman Rask, 1976. "Inflation and Crop Profitability: How Much Can Farmers Pay for Land?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(5), pages 984-990.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Moore, Kevin C., 1987. "Modeling The United States Farmland Market: A Test Of The Rational Expectations Hypothesis," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 269943, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Tegene, Abebayehu, 1983. "A rational expectations approach to the modelling of agricultural supply: a case study of Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009963, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. John B. Taylor, 1983. "Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Flowers, Gwendolyn G., 1983. "An economic analysis of the relation of farm land values and returns," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009469, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Burton, Diana M. & Love, H. Alan, 1996. "A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 213-231, October.
    7. Nerlove, Marc & Fornari, Ilaria, 1998. "Quasi-rational expectations, an alternative to fully rational expectations: An application to US beef cattle supply," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 129-161.
    8. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
    9. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Fiske, John Robery, 1983. "The impact of financial constraints on the local price of farm land," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800008710, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Brake, John R. & Melichar, Emanuel, 1977. "Agricultural Finance and Capital Markets," A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature, Volume 1: Traditional Fields of Agricultural Economics 1940s to 1970s,, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Stam, Jerome M., 1995. "Credit as a Factor Influencing Farmland Values," Staff Reports 278779, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    13. Hwang, Mann-Fen Susan, 1983. "Testing the natural rate hypothesis under the assumption of rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1983010108000017450, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Robison, Lindon J. & Burghardt, William G., 1983. "Five Principles for Building Present Value Models and their Application to Maximum (Minimum) Bid (Sell) Price Models for Land," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201327, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    15. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2011. "Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims: Empirical Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2011-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    16. Lowenberg-DeBoer, James M., 1985. "The impact of farmland price changes on farm size, financial structure enterprise choice," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800009722, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Gauger, Jean Ann, 1984. "Three essays on the neutrality of anticipated money growth," ISU General Staff Papers 198401010800008758, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Laure Latruffe & Chantal Le Mouël, 2009. "Capitalization Of Government Support In Agricultural Land Prices: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 659-691, September.
    19. Mishra, Ashok K. & Moss, Charles B. & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2004. "Effect Of Debt Solvency On Farmland Values: A Panel Cointegration Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Läufer, Nikolaus K. A., 1976. "Unsicherheit, Friedmansche Regel und optimale Wirtschaftspolitik," Discussion Papers, Series I 91, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:198501010800008872. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.