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Full-versus limited-information estimation of a rational-expectations model: Some numerical comparisons

  • West, Kenneth D.

This paper compares numerically the asymptotic distributions of parameter estimates and test statistics associated with two estimation techniques: (a)a limited information one, which uses instrumental variables to estimate a single equation (Hansen and Singleton (1982)), and (b)a full information one, which uses a procedure asymptotically equivalent to maximum likelihood to simultaneously estimate multiple equations (Hansen and Sargent (1980)). The paper compares the two with respect to both (1)asymptotic efficiency under the null hypothesis of no misspecification, and (2)asymptotic bias and power in the presence of certain local alternatives. It is found that: (l)Full information standard errors are only moderately smaller than limited information standard errors. (2)When the model is misspecified, full information tests tend to be more powerful, and its parameter estimates tend to be more biased. This suggests that at least in the model considered here, the gains from the use of the less robust and computationally more complex full information technique are not particularly large.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 33 (1986)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 367-385

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:33:y:1986:i:3:p:367-385
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1982. "The Production and Inventory Behavior of the American Automobile Industry," NBER Working Papers 0891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-80, August.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1981. "What Is Left of the Multiplier Accelerator?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 150-54, May.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1982. "Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 263-296.
  5. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Skoog, Gary R, 1984. "Local Asymptotic Specification Error Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 873-85, July.
  7. McCallum, Bennett T, 1976. "Rational Expectations and the Natural Rate Hypothesis: Some Consistent Estimates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 43-52, January.
  8. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-98, May.
  9. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  10. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  11. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  12. Chow, Gregory C., 1980. "Estimation of rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 241-255, May.
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