IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/12-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogeneity and Panel Data in Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

  • Daniel Montolio

    (University of Barcelona and Barcelona Institute of Economics)

Abstract

Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has been successfully applied in the empirical growth literature as a way to overcome the sensitivity of results to different model specifications. In this paper, we develop a BMA technique to analyze models that differ in the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, or the set of controlling regressors. Our framework allows for both cross-section regressions with instrumental variables and for the commonly used panel data model with xed effects and endogenous or predetermined regressors. The large model space that typically arises can be effectively analyzed using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We apply our technique to the dataset used by Burnside and Dollar (2000) who investigated the e ect of international aid on GDP growth. We show that BMA is an e ective tool for the analysis of panel data growth regressions in cases where the number of models is large and results are sensitive to model assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Daniel Montolio, 2012. "Endogeneity and Panel Data in Growth Regressions: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," GRIPS Discussion Papers 12-08, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:12-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=1095&item_no=1&attribute_id=20&file_no=1
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Justin L. Tobias & Mingliang Li, 2004. "Returns to Schooling and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Union of Two Literatures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 153-180, April.
    3. Alonso-Borrego, Cesar & Arellano, Manuel, 1999. "Symmetrically Normalized Instrumental-Variable Estimation Using Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 36-49, January.
    4. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    5. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Steven Durlauf & Jeffrey Fagan & Daniel Nagin, 2008. "Model Uncertainty and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 335-369.
    6. Dreze, Jacques H, 1976. "Bayesian Limited Information Analysis of the Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(5), pages 1045-1075, September.
    7. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney, 2012. "Bayesian model averaging in the instrumental variable regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 237-250.
    8. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1989. "The Revenues-Expenditures Nexus: Evidence from Local Government Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 415-429, May.
    9. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    10. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
    11. Hayashi, Fumio & Sims, Christopher A, 1983. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models with Predetermined, but Not Exogenous, Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 783-798, May.
    12. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2012. "Mixtures of g-priors for Bayesian model averaging with economic applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(2), pages 251-266.
    13. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    14. Mehmet Eris, 2008. "Foreign aid and growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14.
    15. StevenN. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & ChihMing Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, March.
    16. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    17. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
    18. Huigang Chen & Alin T Mirestean & Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2011. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with An Application to a Trade Gravity Model," IMF Working Papers 11/230, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    20. Jesus regstdpo-Cuaresma & Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Determinants of Regional Economic Growth by Quantile," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 809-826.
    21. Alex Lenkoski & Theo S. Eicher & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1-4), pages 122-151, June.
    22. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2013. "Aid and Growth: What Meta-Analysis Reveals," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(4), pages 564-583, April.
    23. Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Daniel Montolio, 2004. "Growth, convergence and public investment. A Bayesian model averaging approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(17), pages 1925-1936.
    24. Miguel A. Juárez & Mark F. J. Steel, 2010. "Non‐gaussian dynamic bayesian modelling for panel data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1128-1154, November/.
    25. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    26. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    27. Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
    28. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-246, October.
    29. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2010. "Conditional aid effectiveness: A meta-study," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 391-410.
    30. C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
    31. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2009. "Jointness of growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 209-244, March.
    32. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    33. Doppelhofer, G. & Weeks, M., 2005. "Jointness of Growth Determinants," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    34. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    35. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    36. Knack, Stephen & Keefer, Philip, 1995. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators," MPRA Paper 23118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2004. "Measuring the health effects of air pollution: to what extent can we really say that people are dying from bad air?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 30-54, January.
    38. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    39. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    40. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1906 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Tony Lancaster, 2002. "Orthogonal Parameters and Panel Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 647-666.
    42. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    43. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    44. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
    45. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
    46. David Roodman, 2007. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-Country Empirics," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(2), pages 255-277, May.
    47. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2008:i:14:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
    49. Lu, Shuang & Ram , Rati, 2001. "Foreign Aid, Government Policies, and Economic Growth: Further Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data for 1970-1993," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 54(1), pages 15-29.
    50. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    51. Mosley, Paul, 1980. "Aid, Savings and Growth Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 42(2), pages 79-95, May.
    52. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 2002. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1475-1500, September.
    53. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2004. "Aid, Policies, and Growth: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 774-780, June.
    54. Alin T Mirestean & Charalambos G Tsangarides & Huigang Chen, 2009. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods," IMF Working Papers 09/74, International Monetary Fund.
    55. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    56. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Somrasri Yupho & Xianguo Huang, 2014. "Portfolio Capital Flows in Thailand: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2S), pages 89-99, March.
    2. Pham, Thi Hong Hanh, 2017. "Impacts of globalization on the informal sector: Empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 207-218.
    3. repec:vrs:reoecp:v:17:y:2017:i:1:p:3-24:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2015. "Robust determinants of growth in Asian developing economies: A Bayesian panel data model averaging approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 34-46.
    5. Yasmina Rim Limam & Stephen M. Miller & Giampaolo Garzarelli, 2016. "Decomposition of Output Growth in the Presence of Input Quality: A Stochastic Frontier Approach," Working papers 2016-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:eee:wdevel:v:102:y:2018:i:c:p:243-261 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, De Gruyter Open, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    9. Iordanis Kalaitzoglou & Beatrice Durgheu, 2016. "Financial growth and Economic Growth in Europe : Is the Euro Beneficial for All Countries?," Post-Print hal-00859252, HAL.
    10. Andros Kourtellos & Alex Lenkoski & Kyriakos Petrou, 2017. "Measuring the Strength of the Theories of Government Size," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 11-2017, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:12-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/gripsjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.