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Growth, Convergence And Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

  • Roberto León-González

    (Centre for Health Economics. University of York (United Kingdom))

  • Daniel Montolio

    () Departament d’Hisenda Pública. Universitat de Barcelona. Department of Economics. University of York (United Kingdom). Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB))

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we study the determinants of growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). We include several types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Moreover, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in the past decades. The second objective is to overcome the problems of model uncertainty and robustness of estimated parameters in growth regressions using cross-section and panel data techniques. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimates is given by the posterior probability of each model. This technique allows us to obtain parameter estimates that are robust to model specification.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Estudios Fiscales in its series Working Papers with number 13-03 Classification-JEL : O4, H5, C11.

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2003:i:13
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  17. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-73, January.
  18. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  24. Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
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  26. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
  27. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 6422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  29. Joaquín Maudos Villarroya & José Manuel Pastor Monsálvez & Lorenzo Serrano Martínez, 1997. "Convergencia en las regiones españolas: cambio técnico, eficiencia y productividad," Working Papers. Serie EC 1997-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  30. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
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