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Growth, Convergence And Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Author

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  • Roberto León-González

    (Centre for Health Economics. University of York (United Kingdom))

  • Daniel Montolio

    () Departament d’Hisenda Pública. Universitat de Barcelona. Department of Economics. University of York (United Kingdom). Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB))

Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we study the determinants of growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). We include several types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Moreover, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in the past decades. The second objective is to overcome the problems of model uncertainty and robustness of estimated parameters in growth regressions using cross-section and panel data techniques. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimates is given by the posterior probability of each model. This technique allows us to obtain parameter estimates that are robust to model specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto León-González & Daniel Montolio, "undated". "Growth, Convergence And Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers 13-03 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
  • Handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2003:i:13
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    Cited by:

    1. Melisa Chanegriha & Chris Stewart & Christopher Tsoukis, 2017. "Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI: an Extreme Bounds Analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 759-776, March.
    2. repec:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:275-:d:195617 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Magnus, Jan R. & Powell, Owen & Prüfer, Patricia, 2010. "A comparison of two model averaging techniques with an application to growth empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(2), pages 139-153, February.
    4. Fischer, Manfred M. & Piribauer, Philipp, 2013. "Model uncertainty in matrix exponential spatial growth regression models," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 4013, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. repec:ipf:psejou:v:42:y:2018:i:2:p:187-214 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.
    7. DANIELE, Vittorio, 2009. "Development Policy, Public Spending and Regional Convergence in Italy (1996-2007)," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    8. Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Roehn, Oliver, 2007. "Unraveling the fortunes of the fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 494-514, September.
    9. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Discussion Paper 2008-39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America : The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Discussion Paper 2008-61, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Celbis M.G. & Crombrugghe D.P.I. de, 2014. "Can internet infrastructure help reduce regional disparities? : evidence from Turkey," MERIT Working Papers 078, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. Jesus regstdpo-Cuaresma & Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2011. "Determinants of Regional Economic Growth by Quantile," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 809-826.
    13. Marcin Błażejowski & Jacek Kwiatkowski & Jakub Gazda, 2019. "Sources of Economic Growth: A Global Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    14. Daniele VITTORIO, 2009. "Public Spending And Regional Convergence In Italy," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_Summ).
    15. Yeboah Asuamah, Samuel, 2015. "Government activities and fossil fuel consumption in Ghana," MPRA Paper 89549, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2018.
    16. Klump, R. & Prüfer, P., 2006. "Prioritizing Policies for Pro-Poor Growth : Applying Bayesian Model Averaging to Vietnam," Discussion Paper 2006-117, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Celbis, M.G. & Crombrugghe, D. de & Muysken, J., 2014. "Public investment and regional politics: The case of Turkey," MERIT Working Papers 020, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Convergence; Public Investment; Bayesian Model Averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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