IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Growth, Convergence And Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

  • Roberto León-González

    (Centre for Health Economics. University of York (United Kingdom))

  • Daniel Montolio

    () Departament d’Hisenda Pública. Universitat de Barcelona. Department of Economics. University of York (United Kingdom). Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB))

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we study the determinants of growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). We include several types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Moreover, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in the past decades. The second objective is to overcome the problems of model uncertainty and robustness of estimated parameters in growth regressions using cross-section and panel data techniques. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. The Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimates is given by the posterior probability of each model. This technique allows us to obtain parameter estimates that are robust to model specification.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ief.es/documentos/recursos/publicaciones/papeles_trabajo/2003_13.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Instituto de Estudios Fiscales in its series Working Papers with number 13-03 Classification-JEL : O4, H5, C11.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2003:i:13
Contact details of provider: Postal: Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria, 378, 28035 Madrid
Phone: 91-339.89.15
Fax: 91-339.89.64
Web page: http://www.ief.es
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  2. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  3. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
  4. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-96, September.
  5. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1993. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 512-541, September.
  6. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  8. S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  9. Durlauf, Steven N, 1996. " A Theory of Persistent Income Inequality," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 75-93, March.
  10. Joaquín Maudos Villarroya & José Manuel Pastor Monsálvez & Lorenzo Serrano Martínez, 1997. "Convergencia en las regiones españolas: cambio técnico, eficiencia y productividad," Working Papers. Serie EC 1997-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  11. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Econometrics 0110002, EconWPA.
  12. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  14. Richard R. Nelson & Edmond S. Phelps, 1965. "Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-73, January.
  16. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  17. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  19. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  20. Jones, Charles I, 1997. " Convergence Revisited," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 131-53, July.
  21. Lorenzo Serrano Martínez, 1998. "Capital Humano, Estructura Sectorial Y Crecimiento En Las Regiones Españolas," Working Papers. Serie EC 1998-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  22. Ana Lamo, 2000. "On convergence empirics: same evidence for Spanish regions," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(3), pages 681-707, September.
  23. Alba-Ramirez, Alfonso & San Segundo, Maria Jesus, 1995. "The returns to education in Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 155-166, June.
  24. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  25. Min, Chung-ki & Zellner, Arnold, 1993. "Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods for combining models and forecasts with applications to forecasting international growth rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 89-118, March.
  26. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
  27. Psacharopoulos, George, 1993. "Returns to investment in education : a global update," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1067, The World Bank.
  28. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2000. "A further generalization of the Solow growth model: the role of the public sector," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-84, July.
  29. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  30. Leonede Leonida & Daniel Montolio, . "Inter-Distributional and Intra-Clusters Dynamics, and Territorial Distribution of Growth among Spanish Provinces," Studies on the Spanish Economy 109, FEDEA.
  31. Leone Leonida & Daniel Montolio, 2004. "On the determinants of convergence and divergence processes in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(1), pages 89-121, January.
  32. Ezequiel Uriel Jiménez & Francisco Pérez García & Matilde Mas Ivars & Joaquín Maudos Villarroya, 1993. "Disparidades Regionales Y Convergencia En Las Cc.Aa. Españolas," Working Papers. Serie EC 1993-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2003:i:13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Belén Miquel Burgos)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.