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Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

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  • Roberto Leon Gonzalez
  • Daniel Montolio Estivill

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. The second objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robust to model speci cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Leon Gonzalez & Daniel Montolio Estivill, 2003. "Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers in Economics 106, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:2003106
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    2. Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Roehn, Oliver, 2007. "Unraveling the fortunes of the fortunate: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 494-514, September.
    3. Magnus, J.R. & Powell, O.R. & Prüfer, P., 2008. "A Comparison of Two Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics," Other publications TiSEM 0392dffa-51e0-4bc9-9644-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America : The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Other publications TiSEM 73b28850-1597-4bcb-a76c-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. Melisa Chanegriha & Chris Stewart & Christopher Tsoukis, 2017. "Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI: an Extreme Bounds Analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 759-776, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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