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Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

  • Roberto Leon Gonzalez
  • Daniel Montolio Estivill

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. The second objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robust to model speci cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

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Paper provided by Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 106.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:2003106
Contact details of provider: Postal: Espai de Recerca en Economia, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques. Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, Num 1-11 08034 Barcelona. Spain.
Web page: http://www.ere.ub.es

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  1. Joaquín Maudos Villarroya & José Manuel Pastor Monsálvez & Lorenzo Serrano Martínez, 1997. "Convergencia en las regiones españolas: cambio técnico, eficiencia y productividad," Working Papers. Serie EC 1997-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
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  12. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth," FMG Discussion Papers dp154, Financial Markets Group.
  13. Barro, Robert J., 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth," Scholarly Articles 3451296, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  14. Lorenzo Serrano-Martínez, 1999. "Capital humano, estructura sectorial y crecimiento en las regiones españolas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(2), pages 225-249, May.
  15. Durlauf,S.N. & Quah,D.T., 1998. "The new empirics of economic growth," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  16. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  17. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1998. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  18. Alicia H. Munnell, 1990. "Why has productivity growth declined? Productivity and public investment," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
  19. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
  20. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
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  22. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
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  25. Leone Leonida & Daniel Montolio, 2004. "On the determinants of convergence and divergence processes in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(1), pages 89-121, January.
  26. Ezequiel Uriel Jiménez & Francisco Pérez García & Matilde Mas Ivars & Joaquín Maudos Villarroya, 1993. "Disparidades Regionales Y Convergencia En Las Cc.Aa. Españolas," Working Papers. Serie EC 1993-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  27. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  28. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2000. "A further generalization of the Solow growth model: the role of the public sector," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-84, July.
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  30. Alba-Ramirez, Alfonso & San Segundo, Maria Jesus, 1995. "The returns to education in Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 155-166, June.
  31. Leonede Leonida & Daniel Montolio, . "Inter-Distributional and Intra-Clusters Dynamics, and Territorial Distribution of Growth among Spanish Provinces," Studies on the Spanish Economy 109, FEDEA.
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