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Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

  • Roberto Leon Gonzalez
  • Daniel Montolio Estivill

    (Universitat de Barcelona)

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we study the determinants of economic growth among a wide set of potential variables for the Spanish provinces (NUTS3). Among others, we include various types of private, public and human capital in the group of growth factors. Also, we analyse whether Spanish provinces have converged in economic terms in recent decades. The second objective is to obtain cross-section and panel data parameter estimates that are robust to model speci cation. For this purpose, we use a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. Bayesian methodology constructs parameter estimates as a weighted average of linear regression estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weight of each regression estimate is given by the posterior probability of each model.

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Paper provided by Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 106.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bar:bedcje:2003106
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Espai de Recerca en Economia, Facultat de Ciències Econòmiques. Tinent Coronel Valenzuela, Num 1-11 08034 Barcelona. Spain.

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