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Robust Determinants of Growth in Asian Developing Economies: A Bayesian Panel Data Model Averaging Approach

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  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

  • Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of growth in the Asian developing economies. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of a dynamic panel data growth regression to overcome the uncertainty over the choice of control variables. In addition, we use a Bayesian algorithm to analyze a large number of competing models. Among the explanatory variables, we include a non-linear function of inflation that allows for threshold effects. We use an unbalanced panel data set of 27 Asian developing countries over the period 1980–2009. Our empirical evidence on the determinants of growth suggests that an economy’s investment ratio and trade openness are positively correlated to growth, whereas government consumption expenditure is negatively correlated. Further, our empirical results indicate a substantial probability that inflation impedes economic growth when it exceeds 5.43%. We also find no evidence of conditional convergence or divergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2013. "Robust Determinants of Growth in Asian Developing Economies: A Bayesian Panel Data Model Averaging Approach," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-12
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    4. Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Determinants of economic growth in Hong Kong: The role of stock market development," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1510718-151, January.
    5. Sajad Rahimian, 2021. "The Determinants of Democracy Revisited: An Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Papers 2103.04255, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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