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Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Koop

    (University of Strathclyde, UK)

  • Roberto Leon-Gonzalez

    () (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

  • Rodney Strachan

    (The Australian National University)

Abstract

This paper considers the instrumental variable regression model when there is uncertainty about the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, the validity of identifying restrictions and the set of exogenous regressors. This uncertainty can result in a huge number of models. To avoid statistical problems associated with standard model selection procedures, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to do Bayesian model averaging. The algorithm is very flexible and can be easily adapted to analyze any of the different priors that have been proposed in the Bayesian instrumental variables literature. We show how to calculate the probability of any relevant restriction (e.g. the posterior probability that over-identifying restrictions hold) and discuss diagnostic checking using the posterior distribution of discrepancy vectors. We illustrate our methods in a returns-to-schooling application.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Koop & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Rodney Strachan, 2011. "Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model," Working Paper series 09_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Aug 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:09_11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian; endogeneity; simultaneous equations; reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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