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Panel Growth Regressions with General Predetermined Variables: Likelihood-Based Estimation and Bayesian Averaging

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Abstract

In this paper I estimate empirical growth models simultaneously considering endogenous regressors and model uncertainty. In order to apply Bayesian methods such as Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to dynamic panel data models with predetermined or endogenous variables and fixed effects, I propose a likelihood function for such models. The resulting maximum likelihood estimator can be interpreted as the LIML counterpart of GMM estimators. Via Monte Carlo simulations, I conclude that the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimator is better than that of the commonly-used standard GMM. In contrast to the previous consensus in the empirical growth literature, empirical results indicate that once endogeneity and model uncertainty are accounted for, the estimated convergence rate is not significantly different from zero. Moreover, there seems to be only one variable, the investment ration, that causes long-run economic growth.

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  • Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Panel Growth Regressions with General Predetermined Variables: Likelihood-Based Estimation and Bayesian Averaging," Working Papers wp2010_1006, CEMFI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2010_1006
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    1. Kleibergen, Frank & Zivot, Eric, 2003. "Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 29-72, May.
    2. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2015. "Robust determinants of growth in Asian developing economies: A Bayesian panel data model averaging approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 34-46.
    2. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Model Averaging in Economics," Working Papers wp2010_1008, CEMFI.
    3. Frédéric Gaspart & Pierre Pecher, 2015. "Ethnic inclusiveness of the central state government and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2015011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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