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Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers

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  • Rockey, James
  • Temple, Jonathan

Abstract

The issue of model uncertainty is central to the empirical study of economic growth. Many recent papers use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty, but (Ciccone and Jarociński, 2010) have questioned the approach on theoretical and empirical grounds. They argue that a standard ‘agnostic’ approach is too sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable, such as those associated with different vintages of the Penn World Table (PWT). This paper revisits their theoretical arguments and empirical illustration, drawing on more recent vintages of the PWT, and introducing an approach that limits the degree of agnosticism.

Suggested Citation

  • Rockey, James & Temple, Jonathan, 2016. "Growth econometrics for agnostics and true believers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 86-102.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:81:y:2016:i:c:p:86-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.05.010
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    Cited by:

    1. David I. Stern & Jeremy Dijk, 2017. "Economic growth and global particulate pollution concentrations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 391-406, June.
    2. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    3. Altinok, Nadir & Aydemir, Abdurrahman, 2017. "Does one size fit all? The impact of cognitive skills on economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 176-190.
    4. David I. Stern, 2017. "The environmental Kuznets curve after 25 years," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 7-28, April.
    5. Steel, Mark F. J., 2017. "Model Averaging and its Use in Economics," MPRA Paper 81568, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Averaging; Growth regressions; Growth econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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