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Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back

Listed author(s):
  • Abel Brodeur
  • Mathias Lé
  • Marc Sangnier
  • Yanos Zylberberg

Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10-20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing "significant" specifications. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics. (JEL A11, C13)

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2016)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-32

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:8:y:2016:i:1:p:1-32
Note: DOI: 10.1257/app.20150044
Contact details of provider: Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aej-applied
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