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Publication Bias under Aggregation Frictions: Theory, Evidence, and a New Correction Method

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  • Furukawa, Chishio

Abstract

This paper questions the conventional wisdom that publication bias must result from the biased preferences of researchers. When readers only compare the number of positive and negative results of papers to make their decisions, even unbiased researchers will omit noisy null results and inflate some marginally insignificant estimates. Nonetheless, the equilibrium with such publication bias is socially optimal. The model predicts that published non-positive results are either precise null results or noisy but extreme negative results. This paper shows this prediction holds with some data, and proposes a new stem-based bias correction method that is robust to this and other publication selection processes.

Suggested Citation

  • Furukawa, Chishio, 2019. "Publication Bias under Aggregation Frictions: Theory, Evidence, and a New Correction Method," EconStor Preprints 194798, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:194798
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    1. repec:red:issued:18-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bajzik, Jozef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2019. "Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias," MPRA Paper 95031, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    publication bias; information aggregation; meta-analysis; bias correction method;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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    1. Meta-Analysis in Economics

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