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Do Pre-Registration and Pre-analysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?

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  • Brodeur, Abel
  • Cook, Nikolai M.
  • Hartley, Jonathan S.
  • Heyes, Anthony

Abstract

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are increasingly prominent in economics, with pre-registration and pre-analysis plans (PAPs) promoted as important in ensuring the credibility of findings. We investigate whether these tools reduce the extent of p-hacking and publication bias by collecting and studying the universe of test statistics, 15,992 in total, from RCTs published in 15 leading economics journals from 2018 through 2021. In our primary analysis, we find no meaningful difference in the distribution of test statistics from pre-registered studies, compared to their non-pre-registered counterparts. However, pre-registered studies that have a complete PAP are significantly less p-hacked. These results point to the importance of PAPs, rather than pre-registration in itself, in ensuring credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Brodeur, Abel & Cook, Nikolai M. & Hartley, Jonathan S. & Heyes, Anthony, 2022. "Do Pre-Registration and Pre-analysis Plans Reduce p-Hacking and Publication Bias?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1147, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:1147
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    Cited by:

    1. Abel Brodeur & Scott Carrell & David Figlio & Lester Lusher, 2023. "Unpacking P-hacking and Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(11), pages 2974-3002, November.
    2. Thibaut Arpinon & Romain Espinosa, 2023. "A practical guide to Registered Reports for economists," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 9(1), pages 90-122, June.
    3. Danielle V. Handel & Eric A. Hanushek, 2024. "Contexts of Convenience: Generalizing from Published Evaluations of School Finance Policies," Evaluation Review, , vol. 48(3), pages 461-494, June.
    4. Thibaut Arpinon & Romain Espinosa, 2023. "A Practical Guide to Registered Reports for Economists," Post-Print halshs-03897719, HAL.
    5. Sam Sims & Jake Anders & Matthew Inglis & Hugues Lortie-Forgues & Ben Styles & Ben Weidmann, 2023. "Experimental education research: rethinking why, how and when to use random assignment," CEPEO Working Paper Series 23-07, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pre-analysis plan; Pre-registration; p-Hacking; Publication bias; Research credibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

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