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Why Selective Publication of Statistically Significant Results Can Be Effective

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  • Joost de Winter
  • Riender Happee

Abstract

Concerns exist within the medical and psychological sciences that many published research findings are not replicable. Guidelines accordingly recommend that the file drawer effect should be eliminated and that statistical significance should not be a criterion in the decision to submit and publish scientific results. By means of a simulation study, we show that selectively publishing effects that differ significantly from the cumulative meta-analytic effect evokes the Proteus phenomenon of poorly replicable and alternating findings. However, the simulation also shows that the selective publication approach yields a scientific record that is content rich as compared to publishing everything, in the sense that fewer publications are needed for obtaining an accurate meta-analytic estimation of the true effect. We conclude that, under the assumption of self-correcting science, the file drawer effect can be beneficial for the scientific collective.

Suggested Citation

  • Joost de Winter & Riender Happee, 2013. "Why Selective Publication of Statistically Significant Results Can Be Effective," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-7, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0066463
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0066463
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John P A Ioannidis, 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(8), pages 1-1, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Leonid Tiokhin & Minhua Yan & Thomas J. H. Morgan, 2021. "Competition for priority harms the reliability of science, but reforms can help," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 857-867, July.
    2. Marcel A L M van Assen & Robbie C M van Aert & Michèle B Nuijten & Jelte M Wicherts, 2014. "Why Publishing Everything Is More Effective than Selective Publishing of Statistically Significant Results," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5, January.
    3. Heesen, Remco & Bright, Liam Kofi, 2025. "Publication bias is bad for science if not necessarily scientists," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 127420, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Matan Shelomi, 2014. "Editorial Misconduct—Definition, Cases, and Causes," Publications, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, April.
    5. repec:plo:pone00:0110418 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Furukawa, Chishio, 2019. "Publication Bias under Aggregation Frictions: Theory, Evidence, and a New Correction Method," EconStor Preprints 194798, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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