# Taylor & Francis Journals

# The American Statistician

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**Current editor:**Eric Sampson

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**Series handle:**repec:taf:amstat

**ISSN:**0003-1305

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### August 2015, Volume 69, Issue 3

**157-159 Another Remark on the Alternative Expectation Formula***by*Liang Hong**160-164 A Classroom Approach to the Construction of an Approximate Confidence Interval of a Poisson Mean Using One Observation***by*Per GÃ¶sta Andersson**165-173 Bayesian Variable Selection Under Collinearity***by*Joyee Ghosh & Andrew E. Ghattas**174-181 Discreteness Causes Bias in Percentage-Based Comparisons: A Case Study From Educational Testing***by*Darrick Yee & Andrew Ho**182-190 A New Test for Short Memory in Long Memory Time Series***by*Timothy A. C. Hughes & Jaechoul Lee**191-200 Understanding and Addressing the Unbounded "Likelihood" Problem***by*Shiyao Liu & Huaiqing Wu & William Q. Meeker**201-212 A Statistical Framework for Hypothesis Testing in Real Data Comparison Studies***by*Anne-Laure Boulesteix & Robert Hable & Sabine Lauer & Manuel J. A. Eugster**213-220 The Challenges in Developing an Online Applied Statistics Program: Lessons Learned at Penn State University***by*Derek S. Young & Glenn F. Johnson & Mosuk Chow & James L. Rosenberger**221-230 On Two General Classes of Discrete Bivariate Distributions***by*Hyunju Lee & Ji Hwan Cha**231-240 What Your Future Doctor Should Know About Statistics: Must-Include Topics for Introductory Undergraduate Biostatistics***by*Brigitte Baldi & Jessica Utts**241-243 On Probabilistic Proofs of Certain Binomial Identities***by*P. Vellaisamy**253-254 Letter to the Editor***by*R. Dennis Cook & Liliana Forzani & Adam Rothman**254-255 Reply***by*Thaddeus Tarpey & R. Todd Ogden & Eva Petkova & Ronald Christensen**255-256 Reply***by*Peng Ding**256-257 Kirk, J.L., and Fay, M.P. "An Introduction to Practical Sequential Inferences Via Single-Arm Binary Response Studies Using the Binseqtest R Package," The American Statistician , 68, 230-242***by*Iliana Ignatova & Roland Deutsch & Don Edwards**257-257 Nontransitivity, Correlation, and Causation***by*Emil M. Friedman**257-257 Evidence-Based Data Analysis: Protecting the World From Bad Code? Comment by Veresoglou and Rillig***by*Stavros D. Veresoglou & Matthias C. Rillig

### May 2015, Volume 69, Issue 2

**64-67 Celebrating the 175th Anniversary of ASA***by*Christy Chuang-Stein & Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan & Marcus Berzofsky & Amy Herring & Fred Hulting & John McKenzie & Dionne Price & Stephen Stigler & George Williams & Ronald Wasserstein**68-78 A Brief History of the American Statistical Association, 1990-2014***by*Robert L. Mason & John D. McKenzie**79-85 ASA Presidents and Executive Directors Look Back on their Terms in Office***by*James J. Cochran**86-90 Challenges and Opportunities for Statistics in the Next 25 Years***by*Jon R. Kettenring & Kenneth J. Koehler & John D. McKenzie Jr.**91-95 Who Will Celebrate Our 200th Anniversary? Growing the Next Generation of ASA Members***by*Robert N. Rodriguez**96-99 Communicating the Power and Impact of Our Profession: A Heads Up for the Next Executive Directors of the ASA***by*Ron Wasserstein**100-107 The Many Facets of Statistics Education: 175 Years of Common Themes***by*Jessica Utts**108-120 The Influence of Biostatistics at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute***by*David L. DeMets & Janet Turk Wittes & Nancy L. Geller**121-126 Advanced Placement Statistics: Expanding the Scope of Statistics Education***by*Allan J. Rossman & Roy St. Laurent & Josh Tabor**127-137 Recent Developments and Their Implications for the Future of Academic Statistical Consulting Centers***by*Eric A. Vance**138-145 Challenges and Opportunities for Statistics and Statistical Education: Looking Back, Looking Forward***by*Nicholas J. Horton**146-148 On the Computation of Gauss Hypergeometric Functions***by*Saralees Nadarajah**154-155 There's Nothing Wrong With Clopper-Pearson Binomial Confidence Limits***by*Robert Easterling**155-156 Reply***by*Mark F. Schilling & Jimmy A. Doi

### February 2015, Volume 69, Issue 1

**1-4 Has It Really Been Demonstrated That Most Genomic Research Findings Are False?***by*Gregory P. Samsa**5-7 Markov's Inequality and Chebyshev's Inequality for Tail Probabilities: A Sharper Image***by*Joel E. Cohen**8-10 The Absolute Difference Law For Expectations***by*Liang Hong**11-16 Ethical Numbers: Ethics Training in U.S. Graduate Statistics Programs, 2013-2014***by*Lisa M. Lee & Frances A. McCarty & Tenny R. Zhang**17-27 Did the Military Interventions in the Mexican Drug War Increase Violence?***by*Valeria Espinosa & Donald B. Rubin**28-33 Monotone B-Spline Smoothing for a Generalized Linear Model Response***by*Wei Wang & Dylan S. Small**34-40 Biostatistics Faculty and NIH Awards at U.S. Medical Schools***by*Guangxiang Zhang & John J. Chen**41-44 Maximizing Probability Bounds Under Moment-Matching Restrictions***by*Stephen Portnoy**45-52 A Note on the Minimax Solution for the Two-Stage Group Testing Problem***by*Yaakov Malinovsky & Paul S. Albert**62-62 Letter to the Editor***by*Spyros Missiakoulis

### November 2014, Volume 68, Issue 4

**221-229 Reference Class Forecasting: Resolving Its Challenge to Statistical Modeling***by*Robert F. Bordley**230-242 An Introduction to Practical Sequential Inferences via Single-Arm Binary Response Studies Using the binseqtest R Package***by*Jennifer L. Kirk & Michael P. Fay**243-252 Are Nonprofit Antipoverty Organizations Located Where They Are Needed? A Spatial Analysis of the Greater Hartford Region***by*Jun Yan & Chao Guo & Laurie E. Paarlberg**253-263 Dissonant Conclusions When Testing the Validity of an Instrumental Variable***by*Fan Yang & JosÃ© R. Zubizarreta & Dylan S. Small & Scott Lorch & Paul R. Rosenbaum**264-270 The Promise of Prediction Contests***by*Phillip E. Pfeifer & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl**271-276 A Paradoxical Result in Estimating Regression Coefficients***by*Thaddeus Tarpey & R. Todd Ogden & Eva Petkova & Ronald Christensen**277-281 A Property of Geometric Mean Regression***by*Shaoji Xu**282-296 Some Useful Moment Results in Sampling Problems***by*B. O'Neill**297-301 The Sign of the Logistic Regression Coefficient***by*A. B. Owen & P. A. Roediger**302-306 The "Three Plus One" Likelihood-Based Test Statistics: Unified Geometrical and Graphical Interpretations***by*Vito M. R. Muggeo & Gianfranco Lovison**316-316 Tarpey, T., Ogden, R. T., Petkova, E., and Christensen R. (2014), "A Paradoxical Result in Estimating Regression Coefficients," The American Statistician , 68, 271-276 (this issue): Comment by Peng Ding***by*Peng Ding**316-317 Warr, R. L. and Erich, R. A. (2013), "Should the Interquartile Range Divided by the Standard Deviation be Used to Assess Normality?," The American Statistician, 67, 242-244: Comment by Mukhopadhyay and Reply***by*Nitis Mukhopadhyay**317-317 Reply***by*Richard L. Warr & Roger A. Erich**318-318 Aldor-Noiman, S., Brown, L.D., Buja, A., Rolke, W., and Stine, R.A. (2013), "The Power to See: A New Graphical Test of Normality," The American Statistician , 67, 249-260***by*Sivan Aldor-Noiman & Lawrence D. Brown & Andreas Buja & Wolfgang Rolke & Robert A. Stine

### July 2014, Volume 68, Issue 3

**204-204 Section Editor's Notes***by*Robert A. Oster**220-220 Letter to the Editor***by*Liang Hong**220-220 Reply***by*Changyong Feng & Hongyue Wang & Yu Han & Yinglin Xia & Xin M. Tu

### May 2014, Volume 68, Issue 2

**71-83 The Need for More Emphasis on Prediction: A "Nondenominational" Model-Based Approach***by*David A. Harville**83-84 Comment***by*Hal Stern**85-86 Comment***by*Dale L. Zimmerman**87-88 Comment***by*Robert McCulloch**88-89 Comment***by*Donald A. Berry & Scott M. Berry**89-92 Rejoinder***by*David A. Harville**93-97 Direct Calculation of the Variance of Maximum Penalized Likelihood Estimates via EM Algorithm***by*Woojoo Lee & Yudi Pawitan**98-103 A Decorated Parallel Coordinate Plot for Categorical Longitudinal Data***by*Reto BÃ¼rgin & Gilbert Ritschard**104-107 A Note on the Simulation of Overdispersed Random Variables With Specified Marginal Means and Product Correlations***by*Matthew W. Guerra & Justine Shults**108-116 Mosaic Plots are Useful for Visualizing Low-Order Projections of Factorial Designs***by*Ulrike GrÃ¶mping**125-126 Vardeman, S. B. and Morris, M. D. (2013), "Majority Voting by Independent Classifiers can Increase Error Rates," The American Statistician, 67, 94-96: Comment by Baker, Xu, Hu, and Huang and Reply***by*Stuart Baker & Jian-Lun Xu & Ping Hu & Peng Huang**127-127 Segal, N. L., and Torres, J. (2013), "A Repeated Grammatical Error Does Not Make it Right," The American Statistician, 67, 266: Comment by Holland and Reply***by*Bart Holland**127-128 Reply***by*Nancy L. Segal & Jorge Luis Torres**128-128 Ignatova, I., Deutsch, R. C., and Edwards, D. (2012), "Closed Sequential and Multistage Inference on Binary Responses With or Without Replacement," The American Statistician, 66, 163-172: Comment by Michlin and Shaham and Reply***by*Yefim Haim Michlin & Ofer Shaham**129-129 Reply***by*Lina Ignatova & Roland C. Deutsch & Don Edwards**129-130 Kim, Y., Choi, Y.-K., and Emery, S. (2013), "Logistic Regression With Multiple Random Effects: A Simulation Study of Estimation Methods and Statistical Packages," The American Statistician, 67, 171-182***by*Gul Inan & Ozlem Ilk-Dag & Alexander de Leon**130-131 Reply***by*Yoonsang Kim & Sherry Emery

### February 2014, Volume 68, Issue 1

**1-7 Resurrecting the Third Variable: A Critique of Pearl's Causal Analysis of Simpson's Paradox***by*Timothy W. Armistead**8-13 Comment: Understanding Simpson's Paradox***by*Judea Pearl**13-17 Comment***by*Ronald Christensen**17-29 Comment: A Fruitful Resolution to Simpson's Paradox via Multiresolution Inference***by*Keli Liu & Xiao-Li Meng**30-31 Rejoinder***by*Timothy Armistead**32-35 Three Occurrences of the Hyperbolic-Secant Distribution***by*Peng Ding**36-41 Two Useful Reformulations of the Hazard Ratio***by*Edward J. Bedrick**42-51 Prior Elicitation: Interactive Spreadsheet Graphics With Sliders Can Be Fun, and Informative***by*Geoffrey Jones & Wesley O. Johnson**52-55 The Gram-Schmidt Construction as a Basis for Linear Models***by*Lynn Roy LaMotte**56-62 Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for Several Quantiles of an Unknown Distribution***by*A. J. Hayter**67-67 Letter to the Editor: Griffith, Daniel A. (2013), "Better Articulating Normal Curve for Introductory Mathematical Statistics Students: Power Transformations," The American Statistician, 67, 157-169***by*Nitis Mukhopadhyay**67-69 Reply***by*Daniel A. Griffith

### November 2013, Volume 67, Issue 4

**191-200 Applications of Multiple Systems Estimation in Human Rights Research***by*Kristian Lum & Megan Emily Price & David Banks**201-202 Comment: Innovations Associated with Multiple Systems Estimation in Human Rights Settings***by*Stephen E. Fienberg**202-203 Comment***by*Joseph B. Kadane**203-205 Comment***by*Fritz Scheuren**205-206 Rejoinder***by*Kristian Lum & Megan Emily Price & David Banks**207-218 A Tale of Two Matrix Factorizations***by*Paul Fogel & Douglas M. Hawkins & Chris Beecher & George Luta & S. Stanley Young**219-228 I Hear, I Forget. I Do, I Understand: A Modified Moore-Method Mathematical Statistics Course***by*Nicholas J. Horton**229-234 Intro Stats Students Need Both Confidence and Tolerance (Intervals)***by*Howard Gitlow & Hernan Awad**235-241 Data Acquisition and Preprocessing in Studies on Humans: What is Not Taught in Statistics Classes?***by*Yeyi Zhu & Ladia M. Hernandez & Peter Mueller & Yongquan Dong & Michele R. Forman**242-244 Should the Interquartile Range Divided by the Standard Deviation be Used to Assess Normality?***by*Richard L. Warr & Roger A. Erich**245-248 The Mean Value Theorem and Taylor's Expansion in Statistics***by*Changyong Feng & Hongyue Wang & Yu Han & Yinglin Xia & Xin M. Tu**249-260 The Power to See: A New Graphical Test of Normality***by*Sivan Aldor-Noiman & Lawrence D. Brown & Andreas Buja & Wolfgang Rolke & Robert A. Stine**266-266 A Repeated Grammatical Error Does Not Make it Right***by*Nancy L. Segal & Jorge Torres

### August 2013, Volume 67, Issue 3

**117-128 Closed Likelihood Ratio Testing Procedures to Assess Similarity of Covariance Matrices***by*Francesca Greselin & Antonio Punzo**129-133 Revisiting Immer's Barley Data***by*Kevin Wright**134-142 On the Effect and Remedies of Shrinkage on Classification Probability Estimation***by*Chong Zhang & Yufeng Liu & Zhengxiao Wu**143-149 Are Independent Parameter Draws Necessary for Multiple Imputation?***by*Jingchen Hu & Robin Mitra & Jerome Reiter**150-156 Bayesian Multimodel Inference by RJMCMC: A Gibbs Sampling Approach***by*Richard J. Barker & William A. Link**157-169 Better Articulating Normal Curve Theory for Introductory Mathematical Statistics Students: Power Transformations and Their Back-Transformations***by*Daniel A. Griffith**170-170 Section Editor's Notes***by*Robert A. Oster**171-182 Logistic Regression With Multiple Random Effects: A Simulation Study of Estimation Methods and Statistical Packages***by*Yoonsang Kim & Young-Ku Choi & Sherry Emery

### May 2013, Volume 67, Issue 2

**67-75 Using the Exterior Match to Compare Two Entwined Matched Control Groups***by*Paul R. Rosenbaum & Jeffrey H. Silber**76-81 Simulation-Based Confidence Intervals for Functions With Complicated Derivatives***by*Micha Mandel**82-89 Estimating Omissions From Searches***by*Anthony J. Webster & Richard Kemp**90-93 A Bayesian Look at Nonidentifiability: A Simple Example***by*Sergio Wechsler & Rafael Izbicki & LuÃs Gustavo Esteves**94-96 Majority Voting by Independent Classifiers Can Increase Error Rates***by*Stephen B. Vardeman & Max D. Morris**97-103 Visualizing Longitudinal Data With Dropouts***by*Mithat GÃ¶nen**104-104 Section Editor's Notes***by*Robert A. Oster**105-108 Statistical Accuracy of iPad Applications: An Initial Examination***by*Richard G. Lomax**115-116 Correction to "Easy Multiplicity Control in Equivalence Testing Using Two One-Sided Tests"***by*Brian Caffo & Carolyn Lauzon & Joachim RÃ¶hmel

### February 2013, Volume 67, Issue 1

**1-5 "Not Only Defended But Also Applied": The Perceived Absurdity of Bayesian Inference***by*Andrew Gelman & Christian P. Robert**6-7 Comment: Bayesian Inference: The Rodney Dangerfield of Statistics?***by*Stephen Stigler**7-8 Comment: Bayesian Ideas Reemerged in the 1950s***by*Stephen E. Fienberg**9-11 Comment: Bayesian Statistics in the Twenty First Century***by*Wesley O. Johnson**11-15 Discussion: Bayesian Methods: Applied? Yes. Philosophical Defense? In Flux***by*Deborah G. Mayo**16-17 Rejoinder: The Anti-Bayesian Moment and Its Passing***by*Andrew Gelman & Christian P. Robert**18-21 Paul Meier on Legal Consulting***by*Sandy Zabell**22-32 Rare Event Estimation for Computer Models***by*Rick Picard & Brian Williams**33-41 On the Nature of the Stationary Point of a Quadratic Response Surface: A Bayesian Simulation-Based Approach***by*Valeria Sambucini**42-43 Note on an Identity Between Two Unbiased Variance Estimators for the Grand Mean in a Simple Random Effects Model***by*Bruce Levin & Cheng-Shiun Leu**44-48 Twenty-Five Analogies for Explaining Statistical Concepts***by*Roberto Behar & Pere Grima & LluÃs Marco-Almagro**49-56 A Few Counter Examples Useful in Teaching Central Limit Theorems***by*Subhash C. Bagui & Dulal K. Bhaumik & K. L. Mehra**57-59 The Digital Approximation of the Binomial by the Poisson***by*Stephen M. Stigler

### November 2012, Volume 66, Issue 4

**209-213 A Statistical Analysis of the Fairness of Alternative Handicapping Systems in Ten-Pin Bowling***by*Sarah Keogh & Donal O’neill**214-216 A Comparison of the Moment and Factorial Moment Bounds for Discrete Random Variables***by*Steven G. From**217-224 The Equivalence of Neyman Optimum Allocation for Sampling and Equal Proportions for Apportioning the U.S. House of Representatives***by*Tommy Wright**225-231 Histogram-Based Interpolation of the Lorenz Curve and Gini Index for Grouped Data***by*Yves TillÃ© & Matti Langel**232-233 A Remark on the Alternative Expectation Formula***by*Liang Hong**234-236 A New Estimator of the Variance Based on Minimizing Mean Squared Error***by*Stavros Kourouklis**237-237 Should S Get More Press?***by*J. Kelly Cunningham**238-238 Section Editor's Notes***by*Robert A. Oster

### August 2012, Volume 66, Issue 3

**155-162 Estimation of Progression-Free Survival for All Treated Patients in the Randomized Discontinuation Trial Design***by*Theodore G. Karrison & Mark J. Ratain & Walter M. Stadler & Gary L. Rosner**163-172 Closed Sequential and Multistage Inference on Binary Responses With or Without Replacement***by*Iliana Ignatova & Roland C. Deutsch & Don Edwards**173-179 A Simulation-Based Evaluation of the Asymptotic Power Formulas for Cox Models in Small Sample Cases***by*Mehmet Kocak & Arzu Onar-Thomas**180-184 The Exact Likelihood Ratio Test for Equality of Two Normal Populations***by*Lingyun Zhang & Xinzhong Xu & Gemai Chen**185-194 The Tangent Classifier***by*JosÃ© R. Berrendero & Javier Cárcamo**195-200 AndrÃ©-Michel Guerry's Ordonnateur Statistique : The First Statistical Calculator?***by*Michael Friendly & Nicolas de Sainte Agathe**207-207 Letter to the Editor***by*Lawren Smithline

### May 2012, Volume 66, Issue 2

**77-84 Hidden Dangers of Specifying Noninformative Priors***by*John W. Seaman & John W. Seaman & James D. Stamey**85-91 Regressograms and Mean-Covariance Models for Incomplete Longitudinal Data***by*Tanya P. Garcia & Priya Kohli & Mohsen Pourahmadi**99-103 Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice: The First 60 Years and Beyond***by*Shelley Hurwitz & John S. Gardenier**104-111 A Default Bayesian Hypothesis Test for ANOVA Designs***by*Ruud Wetzels & Raoul P. P. P. Grasman & Eric-Jan Wagenmakers**112-117 On the Interrelation Between the Sample Mean and the Sample Variance***by*Ananda Sen**124-127 Who Invented the Delta Method?***by*Jay M. Ver Hoef

### February 2012, Volume 66, Issue 1

**1-7 A Critical Reanalysis of Maryland State Police Searches***by*Philippe Barbe & William C. Horrace**8-15 Exact Binomial Confidence Intervals for Randomized Response***by*Jesse Frey & AndrÃ©s PÃ©rez**16-24 Treatment Heterogeneity and Individual Qualitative Interaction***by*Robert S. Poulson & Gary L. Gadbury & David B. Allison**25-33 Robustness of the Simultaneous Estimators of Location and Scale From Approximating a Histogram by a Normal Density Curve***by*A. S. Hedayat & Guoqin Su**34-41 Estimating the Correlation in Bivariate Normal Data With Known Variances and Small Sample Sizes***by*Bailey K. Fosdick & Adrian E. Raftery**42-49 On Rigorous Specification of ICAR Models***by*Michael L. Lavine & James S. Hodges**50-60 Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces for Penalized Regression: A Tutorial***by*Alvaro Nosedal-Sanchez & Curtis B. Storlie & Thomas C.M. Lee & Ronald Christensen**61-66 Measurement Error and the Hot Hand***by*Daniel F. Stone**75-75 Letter to the Editor***by*Christopher Tong