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Individual Discount Rates: A Meta-Analysis of the Experimental Evidence

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  • Jindrich Matousek

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We examine 434 estimates of the individual discount rate reported in 27 published studies. The estimates vary substantially across studies with reported mean at the value of 0.4. We detect presence of selective reporting in the discounting literature using a meta-analytical methods. Our results suggest that relevant discounting literature overestimates the discount rate approximately twofold. We apply Bayesian model averaging to explain heterogeneity in the estimates. Discount rate estimates are influenced mainly by the experimental design used for its elicitation. We confirm domain independence and the effect of time horizon presented within the discounting task. Our results support the external validity of experiments conducted on student samples and the utilisation of hypothetical rewards in experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jindrich Matousek, 2018. "Individual Discount Rates: A Meta-Analysis of the Experimental Evidence," Working Papers IES 2018/40, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Dec 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2018_40
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    4. Taisuke Imai & Tom A Rutter & Colin F Camerer, 2021. "Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation using Convex Time Budgets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1788-1814.
    5. Pablo Brañas-Garza & Diego Jorrat & Antonio M. Espín & Angel Sánchez, 2023. "Paid and hypothetical time preferences are the same: lab, field and online evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 412-434, April.
    6. Fischbacher, Urs & Schudy, Simeon & Teyssier, Sabrina, 2021. "Heterogeneous preferences and investments in energy saving measures," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Bernedo Del Carpio, María & Alpizar, Francisco & Ferraro, Paul J., 2022. "Time and risk preferences of individuals, married couples and unrelated pairs," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    8. Thomas Meissner & David Albrecht, 2022. "Debt Aversion: Theory and Measurement," Papers 2207.07538, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    9. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    11. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    12. Irsova, Zuzana & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Havranek, Tomas & Stanley, T. D., 2023. "Meta-Analysis of Social Science Research: A Practitioner’s Guide," EconStor Preprints 273719, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Marvin Schütt, 2024. "Wind Turbines and Property Values: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(1), pages 1-43, January.
    14. Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2022. "The finance-growth nexus in Latin America and the Caribbean: A meta-analytic perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    15. Havranek, Tomas & Bajzík, Josef & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2023. "Does Shareholder Activism Create Value? A Meta-Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 18233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Geske, Joachim, 2022. "The value of energy efficiency in residential buildings – a matter of heterogeneity?!," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    17. Amar Anwar & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2022. "Institutions and FDI from BRICS countries: a meta-analytic review," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 417-468, July.
    18. Kvarven, Amanda & Strømland, Eirik & Johannesson, Magnus, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias: Comment," MetaArXiv dh87m, Center for Open Science.
    19. Ichiro Iwasaki & Evžen Kočenda & Evžen Kocenda, 2023. "Quest for the General Effect Size of Finance on Growth: A Large Meta-Analysis of Worldwide Studies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10740, CESifo.
    20. Slichter, David & Tran, Nhan, 2023. "Do better journals publish better estimates?," MPRA Paper 118433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discount rate; Discounting; Experiment; Publication bias; Meta-Analysis; Bayesian Model Averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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