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Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy Implications

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  • Rahul Giri
  • Mr. Saad N Quayyum
  • Rujun Yin

Abstract

We identify key factors, from large set of potential determinants, that explain the variation in export diversification across countries and over time using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), which addresses model uncertainty and ranks factors in order of importance vis-a-vis their explanatory power. Our analysis suggests, in order to diversify, policy makers should prioritize human capital accumulation and reduce barriers to trade. Other policy areas include improving quality of institutions and developing the financial sector. For commodity exporters reducing barriers to trade is the most important driver of diversification, followed by improving education outcomes at the secondary level and financial sector development.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahul Giri & Mr. Saad N Quayyum & Rujun Yin, 2019. "Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 2019/105, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/105
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    2. Fredy Cepeda-Lopez & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Carlos Leon-Rincón & Hernán Rincon-Castro, 2022. "Colombian Liberalization and Integration into World Trade Markets: Much Ado about Nothing," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 25(2), pages 1-44, December.
    3. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    4. Yves Jégourel, 2022. "Transition environnementale, matières premières et industrialisation : quelles synergies engager ?," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1968, Policy Center for the New South.
    5. Ali Dadpay & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2021. "Political Agreements and Exporting Activities: An Empirical Assessment of the Effects of the JCPOA Agreement on Iran’s Exports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 147-180, March.
    6. Abdalla Alfaki, Ibrahim M. & El Anshasy, Amany A., 2022. "Oil rents, diversification and growth: Is there asymmetric dependence? A copula-based inquiry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2020. "Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2019 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Staff Country Reports 2020/070, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dahmani, Mounir, 2021. "Impact de la diversification des exportations sur la croissance économique: Cas de la Tunisie [Impact of export diversification on economic growth: case of Tunisia]," MPRA Paper 112225, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2021.
    10. Valerio Della Corte & Claire Giordano, 2021. "Methodological issues in the estimation of current account imbalances," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 617, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Rogneda I. Vasilyeva & Valentin A. Voitenkov & Alina R. Urazbaeva, 2022. "Modelling of the Influence of Regional Determinants on Export Diversification in Russia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 21(1), pages 79-100.
    12. Zühal Kurul, 2023. "Hard and soft factors of trade facilitation and export diversification: Evidence for developing and the least developed countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 61(2), pages 75-116, June.
    13. Peñaranda Molina, Diego Andrés, 2021. "Determinantes de la diversificación de exportaciones en Sudamérica: un análisis con datos de panel," Documentos de trabajo 3/2021, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    14. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Thanh Dinh Su, 2022. "Export Dynamics and Income Inequality: New Evidence on Export Quality," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1063-1113, October.
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2020. "Peru: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2020/004, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Swathi. M & P. Sridharan, 2022. "Determinants of Export Diversification: Evidence from Fractional Logit Estimation Model," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 57(2), pages 160-177, May.
    17. Thi Anh-Dao Tran & Minh Hong Phi & Long Thai, 2020. "Global value chains and the missing link between exchange rates and export diversification," Post-Print halshs-02972341, HAL.

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